Runcible Spoon

because the severity of Dudley has by and large got less propensity to be a significant weather event than Eunice which may well be over a larger area in areas less used to storms?

All the very best to you Michael. Thank you for your service over the years and your great style/content of your forecasts.

Many will have got carried away somewhat with the outrageous charts of a couple of days ago. Cold weather for a few days is nailed on for all. 12z's so far indicate the eastern side of the country will get snow for sure, though I'm sure some unlucky areas there may not. Whilst the showers and convective streamers can and will pop up, the low res models wont get that right and even the hi res models will never be near 100% either. Frontal snow with no 'gaps' in the precip line give much more comfort over surety, but the most recent model runs indicate more of a sleety or snow/rain event for the south and southwest middle of next week. 12z METO and ECM will hopefully show some improved decent frontal snow chances next week, but if gonna turn slushy or melt very soon after there, I'd rather it be 10 degrees, than 2! Slate grey skies and cold don't float my boat. Still, I'll be pleased to see others fun in the regionals

How much are snow accumulations going to be jeopardised by warmish ground temps following the last few days and in some areas rain having fallen before it turns to snow?

32.7 Heathrow Friday 28th

low pressure front running into high pressure - can never be completely sure the point at which the latter starts to cancel the former out. Though you would have thought in this day and age they could do it accurately

My complaint is not that it wont snow necessarily, but almost certainly to be markedly less than predicted for the midlands.

direction of travel indicates an epic fail for most here. Yes it has not yet happened and yes tricky one for the forecasters to get right, but as we live in an increasingly nanny state and risk averse society, these over egged warnings sadly become all too common

calling this out as a bust for vast majority of midlands. odd dusting about but the way the precip will fragment and fade will see hardly anyone here getting much to shout about. Met office app downgrading amounts now too,

met offce raw data now gone from 4 hrs heavy snow in Hereford later evening to 6 hrs of it a bit earlier. Must be a signal for an upgrade?

Nothing in Hereford at the mo

how they can be that precise with the amber zone is a joke. Ridiculous size and shape

not looking good that icon run. There will be some gaps in that front as it arrives here so very variable and light to non existent for some

we are seeing downgrades rather than upgrades with the predicted intensity of the snow but it will be nice just to see some falling from the sky!

-5.2 currently here in Hereford against a low of -6.3 here at 2am. Freezing fog slowly lifting. Could be a good day for snow but we will see!

Got to agree with this sadly. There will be some areas that get the heavier stuff but the the front seems like it will fragment as it moves northwards. You never know though as models don't always get this spot on, as sometimes ppn can weaken and reinvigorate as a front moves.

I think this sorry episode may at least help keep some more grounded when day 5/6 cold/snowy charts show up on the models. We can celebrate what they show as being great charts, but they don't show great actual weather as great weather is only that at T0, I think I'd prefer to see mild storms showing as they are less prone to disappointing than BFTE charts that rarely verify or even cold zonality that often delivers rain episodes or sleety stuff leaving you think what could have been.

Most of us are addicts, so as bad as things seem now, we will still keep coming back for more. Each model has its known bias, but this serves as another lesson in that these biases do not always show up and each model and run should be looked at as objectively as possible. Never fully discount anything! Its only weather and there are more important travesties going on in our world.

Wow, so disappointing. I know there is the thrill of the chase and all that but this model watching is too fraught as a hobby living in this country. All sizzle and no sausage eh Steve? If we were mostly neutrals rather than coldies, it would be fascinating but it's just so rare to get the synoptics we want pinned down at close range, never mind the actual weather itself. A big snow event on Tues/Weds would have softened the blow, but with the GFS only going for it and not likely to be right we are well and truly scuppered - for now.

But are the GFS snow maps any more trustworthy three days out?

ARPEGE got Tues/Weds front as a mainly rain affair

Heavy being the operative word. The front looks pretty active on GFS for Tues, so could be a good test of your theory Matt (which I don't disagree with)

yes it can happen, but not as likely as falling on frigid, dry ground. Anyway, I think the 12z's will bring some optimism now that expectations have been markedly lowered again!

Mmm, amazing how quickly elation turns to despondency. Most of us get too high based on model runs, - even if they look convincing. Equally we get too despondent at times too. Rule of thumb is not to fully believe the models until we get to around T24/48 for good old blightly. Our weather is so much more affected by a multitude of variables compared to a large continental landmass. The back edge snow predicted by GFS for Tues/Weds is not floating my boat as even if it does happen, it will be falling on relatively warm ground/grass that will already be wet from the rain that is likely to precede it. Hardly a recipe for low level settling!

A multi model flip seems unlikely this time in terms of a definite cold spell. Such a strong signal for this to be the case over at least the next fortnight. Biggest concern is where the precip will fall and how much. Too early to say of course, but the longer we stay cold/very cold, the greater the potential opportunities arise. I'd prefer a week of cold and plenty of snow, rather than a fortnight of showers/light stuff. Give me those 50p size flakes!!! Anyone know whether AROME/ARPEGE/HIRLAM is most trustworthy for precip types/amounts?