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Runcible Spoon

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    Hereford

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  1. low pressure front running into high pressure - can never be completely sure the point at which the latter starts to cancel the former out. Though you would have thought in this day and age they could do it accurately
  2. My complaint is not that it wont snow necessarily, but almost certainly to be markedly less than predicted for the midlands.
  3. direction of travel indicates an epic fail for most here. Yes it has not yet happened and yes tricky one for the forecasters to get right, but as we live in an increasingly nanny state and risk averse society, these over egged warnings sadly become all too common
  4. calling this out as a bust for vast majority of midlands. odd dusting about but the way the precip will fragment and fade will see hardly anyone here getting much to shout about. Met office app downgrading amounts now too,
  5. met offce raw data now gone from 4 hrs heavy snow in Hereford later evening to 6 hrs of it a bit earlier. Must be a signal for an upgrade?
  6. how they can be that precise with the amber zone is a joke. Ridiculous size and shape
  7. not looking good that icon run. There will be some gaps in that front as it arrives here so very variable and light to non existent for some
  8. we are seeing downgrades rather than upgrades with the predicted intensity of the snow but it will be nice just to see some falling from the sky!
  9. -5.2 currently here in Hereford against a low of -6.3 here at 2am. Freezing fog slowly lifting. Could be a good day for snow but we will see!
  10. Got to agree with this sadly. There will be some areas that get the heavier stuff but the the front seems like it will fragment as it moves northwards. You never know though as models don't always get this spot on, as sometimes ppn can weaken and reinvigorate as a front moves.
  11. I think this sorry episode may at least help keep some more grounded when day 5/6 cold/snowy charts show up on the models. We can celebrate what they show as being great charts, but they don't show great actual weather as great weather is only that at T0, I think I'd prefer to see mild storms showing as they are less prone to disappointing than BFTE charts that rarely verify or even cold zonality that often delivers rain episodes or sleety stuff leaving you think what could have been.
  12. Most of us are addicts, so as bad as things seem now, we will still keep coming back for more. Each model has its known bias, but this serves as another lesson in that these biases do not always show up and each model and run should be looked at as objectively as possible. Never fully discount anything! Its only weather and there are more important travesties going on in our world.
  13. Wow, so disappointing. I know there is the thrill of the chase and all that but this model watching is too fraught as a hobby living in this country. All sizzle and no sausage eh Steve? If we were mostly neutrals rather than coldies, it would be fascinating but it's just so rare to get the synoptics we want pinned down at close range, never mind the actual weather itself. A big snow event on Tues/Weds would have softened the blow, but with the GFS only going for it and not likely to be right we are well and truly scuppered - for now.
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