[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

So, the blocking isn’t as anticipated and the met office never suggested any real winter weather; does this not suggest we should simply leave it to Exeter. So often the amateurs make predictions, based on models at D7 + that rarely if ever come off. I know the thrill is the potential for winter nirvana but surely after years of early promise followed by downgrades it’s time to acknowledge that the models are flawed?

[ALL THINGS AUSTRIA]

Off to Saalbach in mid March and just wondering what the local Long term trends are suggesting?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do suspect, looking at official weather sites around that site that it is recording a value too high. Yes, of course the sun will melt snow at this time of year, it is almost March. The sun is way higher than 2 months ago. Perhaps your expectations are too high. A number of Met forecasts have talked of the cold in relation to the time of year.

Hi there John, I live in a very(very) similar part of the world to you and I have lived many years of unfulfilled hysteria. I think your balanced unbiased analysis is excellent and your one of the few who post on the MOD thread that I value. The slight gripe I have is with the forecast media - The professionals that you refer to. As you know we have had  an amber warning for some time in our area and yet its currently above freezing, no lying snow and the occasional shower. Tomorrow (less than 24 hrs out)the met office app shows heavy snow from 3am until around lunchtime. This is not hopecasting but almost now casting and I don't have faith in what is being predicted. Is it simply the case that it is almost impossible to predict snow with any amount of certainty on our warm island - Doncaster is another matter as I'm convinced we have a particularly warm microclimate

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Me too. Actually if the south coast can't get anything of of this, I might give up chasing snow altogether. Low pressure running into uppers of minus 17C? Should be a total shoe-in for a blizzard. I'll be horrified if this one is added to the (very) long list of disappointments. It's not the geography that's at fault, it's just seriously bad luck. My goodness, just how many spells of torrential rain have we had on the south coast at 3 or 4 degrees above freezing? 

But this is the one I've been waiting for. You look at so many historical south coast blizzards, most of them look exactly like this. I can't imagine getting a better chance than this, so if it fails, maybe it's time to hang up my boots.

No, give me summer anytime. In summer, you spot a good pattern 8 or 9 days out, and 50% of the time it delivers. We get the high twenties without the ridiculous heat inland. We get day after day of glorious sunshine. Yes there are disappointments in summer too but there seems a fair balance between the ones that work out and the ones that don't.

I think we're due a break down here. If the Midlands could get a break in December with that slider low further south at T12, well, considering we lost a blizzard to the sea in 2013 on a last minute southerly correction, I think it's high time the balance was redressed. If not this time, I can't imagine when.

I'm done with reading stories about it. I want to see it with my own eyes!

 

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. 

The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread.

The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. 

After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window 

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2017/18]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

We do get seasonal forecasts but not use to individual weeks like yours. I know they have plenty of depth and the runs are in fantastic condition.  You will just be fine at the end of March even if if gets a bit warm it still freezes at night and snow blowers come into operation. Obertauern as you know has one of the longest ski-ing seasons in the whole of the Alps . I will be staying at Hotel Schneider during the festival. Good luck with the weather and I am sure the snow will be good .

C 

Many thanks for this and keep up the good work!

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2017/18]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I love Obertauern. Where you staying ? Its not too far from Katschberg on the same lift pass.  At that height of 1750 asl ( village ) will be a safe bet as anywhere. Think next week will be a bit too cold with altitude so glad I am staying in a lower resort for a week.Think you probabaly booked the best time of the season to go to Obertauern. I usually go for the snowboard music fest in April, always a good party atmosphere. Stay away from Edelweiss- Alm, its mad !

 C

We also love Obertauern. It's an unknown destination the brits. I like to keep it that way ?Staying in the Petersbuhel for the first time this year.

Do any seasonal models\forecasts exist for the eastern alps as im always paranoid about the weather and snow conditions

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2017/18]

On 2/17/2018 at 10:06, carinthian said:

Morning Malcolm, not the best of days today, a lot of low cloud and light snowfall.  Just plenty of snow for new arrivals today, one of the busiest of the season. Temps OF -20C on the mountain next weekend. That's dangerous. Obviously as we go into March the sunshine makes for great ski-ing, so a good prospect for the rest of the season more than likely. Just back from Dolomites and they are having one the best snow season for quite a long time with low temps keeping the wonderful snow conditions down there. Meeting up with some old ski pal next weekend in Rauris, think I will have to bring my thermals, hip flask and hot water bottle. At least the runs there are soon back in the village and cosy mountain huts to keep warm with a beverage or two !  You off back to the Alps for a late one ?

C

 

Hi Carinthian, Austrian snow lover with a trip planned to Obertauern in Salzburg at the back end of March. The current ensemble forecast for next week is outrageous for cold but I was wondering if any longer term seasonal forecasts were available 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment.

The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend?

Enlightenment required please.