Wizzobell

So, the blocking isn’t as anticipated and the met office never suggested any real winter weather; does this not suggest we should simply leave it to Exeter. So often the amateurs make predictions, based on models at D7 + that rarely if ever come off. I know the thrill is the potential for winter nirvana but surely after years of early promise followed by downgrades it’s time to acknowledge that the models are flawed?

Off to Saalbach in mid March and just wondering what the local Long term trends are suggesting?

Hi there John, I live in a very(very) similar part of the world to you and I have lived many years of unfulfilled hysteria. I think your balanced unbiased analysis is excellent and your one of the few who post on the MOD thread that I value. The slight gripe I have is with the forecast media - The professionals that you refer to. As you know we have had an amber warning for some time in our area and yet its currently above freezing, no lying snow and the occasional shower. Tomorrow (less than 24 hrs out)the met office app shows heavy snow from 3am until around lunchtime. This is not hopecasting but almost now casting and I don't have faith in what is being predicted. Is it simply the case that it is almost impossible to predict snow with any amount of certainty on our warm island - Doncaster is another matter as I'm convinced we have a particularly warm microclimate

I keep hearing about the South’s lack of snow but I’m based in S Yorks and we haven’t had snow since 2010. The reality is that we are all snow starved and therefore ramp at the possibility of snow even so called experts on the model thread. The models really struggle with our island and can simply pick a broad trend with v little detailed accuracy even at v short time periods hence we have an amber warning but we don’t even have a covering of snow. After another failed bout of snowmaggedon predictions I think I’m going to stick to looking out of the window

Many thanks for this and keep up the good work!

We also love Obertauern. It's an unknown destination the brits. I like to keep it that way ?Staying in the Petersbuhel for the first time this year. Do any seasonal models\forecasts exist for the eastern alps as im always paranoid about the weather and snow conditions

Hi Carinthian, Austrian snow lover with a trip planned to Obertauern in Salzburg at the back end of March. The current ensemble forecast for next week is outrageous for cold but I was wondering if any longer term seasonal forecasts were available

Hi all, something of a long standing lurker who loves the learning and the knowledge demonstrated on this site but I must confess to being a little confused at the moment. The GFS is consistently showing remarkable runs yet the ECM 0z has backed away slightly with the hp a little further south. However, the GFS 6z is stellar once again. Here's the rub; I get the impression from recent posts that most people are starting to feel v confident in a likely cold/ v cold spell yet my understanding is that the ECM is generally more accurate and the GFS 6z is one of the more low resolution outputs. Does this not suggest that we should be more wary of the ECM trend? Enlightenment required please.