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Mr Bartlettazores

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    Eastleigh, Hampshire
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    Hot and stormy, cold and icy!

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  1. Interesting replies all (who have to my question). The article looks as if it was published 4 or so hours ago. I did respond and mentioned that more models are now showing this possibility and that GFS is not out on its own… and in fact was the model which picked up with this upcoming severe hot spell way back at the end of June
  2. For balance and hopefully not too much off topic. There is a respected meteorologist in USA called Guy Walton who is staying that the GFS is not to be trusted and that he’s with the ECM on our predicted temperatures for Monday/Tuesday - so closer to 37c than 40c. So he’s effectively stating 40c won’t happen. This seems to go against the recent views that the ECM underplays temperatures by a few degrees and that the GFS has been fixed. Whilst a separate weather event, I’m a little mindful myself of the June heatwave when temps ended up a few degrees down on initial forecasts/projections of up to 34c (32.7c in the end). So just for balance, should we also take the performance of both models into account with this recent heatwave too? On the balance of increasing ensemble 850 hpa means, an increase in models and runs showing 40c being reached etc I’m minded to think it is still a growing possibility, but just that at this stage. If these sort of max temps are still showing by Sunday night then I think we can confidently suggest by then that the magic 40c barrier can be hit somewhere!
  3. Hi. I do remember this. I recall that it was Wednesday 6th August from memory that was initially meant to threaten the record. Temps that day did peak at 36.4c so a bit short of the then 37.1c record from 1990. It was then thought that the chances of beating the record were over. I was living in Cardiff at the time and that Weds 6th was forecast to break its record but cloud cover which wasn’t forecast meant this didn’t materialise on the day. On I also recall that Saturday 9th that things had changed with the forecast for the Sunday 10th and it was then forecast to possibly break the record which it did - in numerous places within the M25 and in Kent of course. In linking to the models today, I guess this shows things can chop and change right up to the last day or so…what with many factors at play with our weather too. I certainly think things will likely peak on Tuesday potentially in the south east/east (maybe even the north/north east) before the extreme heat is shunted away. I’m basing this on the delays of the peak maximum temps moving back 3 or 4 days from what was initially shown a week or so back. I’m not so sure there will be such a progressive shunt of the heat as some models show earlier on the Tuesday but we shall see! Could there also be a surprise fohn effect somewhere on the day too in some locations further north? It happened with Exeter last month. Could be a factor for records to be broken further north for example.
  4. That’s pretty spectacular! One of the MO Senior meteorologists even ruled this out initially before confirming it happened. Also, there are reports that Brogdale Farm hit 38.4 degrees yesterday albeit not yet officially confirmed just yet. The BBC reported live from the site yesterday and it looks very much the same as previously with a thick tree boundary. However, when questioned on Twitter, someone of the MO simply said it’s not one of their official sites now so presumably can’t take the July record. However, I’d have thought the Stevenson Screen issues would have been improved compared to 2003 so issues impacting on readings may have been improved even if marginally. It just seems very inconsistent that it can’t have official readings now yet still has the all time record from 2003. So if confirmed, the hottest temperature yesterday should really be 38.4 degrees, or the previous record should be revoked. It just doesn’t sit right with me. I’ve asked a number of questions about the Brogdale site before and no one seems to give an answer. I also think the MO needs to give a very strong justification as to why it’s no longer an official site considering it’s importance for recorded high temperatures. I’m not sure their previous reasons are strongly justified with regards to its removal. I work in an industry where everything is evidence led and justified to the hilt under very close scrutiny so really there should be further scrutiny and debate around this site considering its readings (if officially confirmed) from yesterday. Maybe I should also wait to see what the MO officially says on this but it does raise possible consistency issues if not officially accepted.
  5. I never said that we would reach 40 today or every year for that matter - that’s just taking my original reply out of context. I’m just saying there is an increased frequency of significant heat records, certainly in comparison to cold weather temperature records. There is a warming trend! Yes there are significant cold spells and records at times, but are generally less frequent and extreme at the other end of the temperature scale it would appear. I don’t think it’s fair to suggest from my original reply though that I was saying we would get this weather event every year - and again, as for last summer with the dry ground and sustained / consistent heat, a push of hot air from the continent or south in general could have resulted in rather high temps in the upper 30s there too. This was pretty much recognised and acknowledged at the time. Of course we don’t get these heatwaves every year, particularly at the peak time of year for the highest temperatures (eg 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2019 (?)), but when taken altogether and the heat records going whether it be national, local, daily or monthly - I don’t know why you are even trying to suggest I was saying this would happen every year! Also, I am objective person and leave emotion or preferences out of things - for example, I predicted a top temperature the other day of 37.9 degrees but for tomorrow in the East Anglia region based on the westerly corrections of the incoming heat that the models were getting to grips with. If I was someone that was overly excited by my preferences which is heat and storms, I’d have certainly predicted higher than that...
  6. Yes I remember that as I follow AurorawatchUK on Facebook. I think they were very embarrassed at that and there were a lot of annoyed people. To get back on topic, it would be really interesting to see a study on today’s weather, temperatures and observation sites, a bit like the study for 2003 which Knocker pointed out.
  7. Quick question if anyone can answer...was there cloud cover moving into the south east in the heatwave on 10th August 2003? Did it put a lid on temps going even higher that day? I recall severe thunderstorms up in the north east that afternoon and it was cooler in the west. Cardiff had a predicted record of 34 degrees on the Saturday 9th but unexpected cloud cover scuppered that (think it was 30/31 instead so below the city record from 1995 which is 33 degrees I believe). Would certainly be interesting to know although can’t remember cloud cover over the south east that day?
  8. It was always about 60% so not really sure it would have had that favourable odds. Probably evens if the bookies would have offered but didn’t see anything offered when I looked.
  9. Thank you for confirming Rob K. I did indeed notice earlier on after it was on the way to claiming the hottest July day today! It’s a shame that there aren’t the Faversham (at least officially) and Gravesend stations to compare to previous heatwaves though - particularly 2003.
  10. Sunshine still coming out intermittently at Heathrow for anyone’s thats interested. I suspect the peak time for max temps is passing now however.
  11. I can confirm it’s just about clouded over at Heathrow now although amazing to to experience 100f temps here. Had some good strong sun for a period up to now.
  12. Hi all. I had an unexpected afternoon off so decided to drive up to Heathrow and am on official heat watch! I’m in Longford more specifically just to the north of the observation station and can confirm it’s roasting! Cloud is milky at worst and only for short periods with shadows always visible so maybe still in the game? Not seen the latest temps but plenty of clear sky around at the moment.
  13. A very interesting article and surely doubts will persist if the 38.5 degrees isn’t beaten today (although I think it will be). The previous record was Cheltenham at 37.1 degrees on 3rd August 1990. I also recall Cambridge being an official site a few years back but also not sure this is now? Too much tinkering for me with the weather stations over recent years and in my view, with the climate change debate raging on, these sites must be given stronger protections (ie via national planning policies) and more closely regulated (eg no large trees or bushes within the vicinity that could impact the temperature). Also quite amazing that last year the Scottish record was almost broken because of an adjacent ice cream van running its engines!
  14. I don’t know much about the specifics, but I have just read that this site was closed due to landscaping changes in relation to the development of a new theme park. I personally think this station should have have been retained and find it ironic that Paramount Park was granted via Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project status in 2014, yet a nationally significant weather station in terms of its hottest day records (including briefly the UK record) in particular has had to close to make way for it! Whilst a fan of theme parks, I think some or all of the station could have probably have been designed into the development and would certainly argue for continuity with data collection and that the retention of this station would have been of greater national significance (but without scuppering plans for the theme park). It annoys me when things like this are either not fully thought through...as does the lack of continuity in data collection. Would have been good to compare this to 2003, although Brogdale Farm in Faversham still exists apparently?
  15. It’s the ‘one offf’ comment which gets my interest. 34 degrees in Gravesend in mid September 2017; 36.7 degrees in July 2015 from a one day plume event; much more in the way of hitting 34 or 35 degrees as the top temperature over the last five years here in the UK. Oh and we may have dodged a bullet last summer since there was no southerly flow to allow 38 degree temperatures at the time. It could easily have happened. So don’t really think it can be called a one off. Ok, like getting snow at Christmas time, we have hit the jackpot (heat lovers that is) for this heatwave at the hottest part of the year. Those that argue there is no warming trend or an increased frequency in record warm temperatures may also argue about the very cold spells in Brazil and Australia etc over recent months; the polar vortex hitting the US last winter. However, these are surely anomalies in a warming world. A bit like our 1976 summer being an anomaly in a cooler world back then.
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