Youcan'tbecirrus

To my very untrained eye that looks a stunning chart. A couple of days ago, and with a SSW apparently in the wings, I think members would have been salivating over such a chart but it is interesting to see how there seems to be a lot less positivity in here this morning.

SSW to come though ?.........if it evolves the way we want it to of course.

It's a good point. Based on absolutely nothing more than years of failed potential in here, I will reserve any excitement until T72. If the models are still showing these synoptics at that stage then I'll be more on board. Upcoming Countryfile should be worth a look. The '87 event began on 12th January.

Now that would get me interested. I don't know if the '87 event (akin to lake effect snow ?) came from such a set up and whether it was the result of an SSW but there has been nothing like it since in my area (21" snow). 91 or 92 was good and I was too young to remember 62/63 but I know that was off the scale. When the models are showing something like -20 in Moscow -12 Berlin and -6 in Amsterdam that's when I will get really interested but this upcoming spell does look pleasingly cold with enough precipitation around to satisfy many at some point.

Out of interest how often has that set up happened before. Not suggesting for one moment it would be the same this time but would the 47/63 winters have come from such a set up ? Was 2010 similar ? From what I recall the 87 event came from the East so I assume that was a totally different set up.

Years of experience tells me not to get hopes up until John Holmes and all the models agree. Isn't the model that John uses currently showing a westerly set up after Christmas ? However, experience also tells me to start getting interested when Mr Murr and other respected posters start getting excited so it's great to see them contributing.

Totally at odds with the BBC then. London news just showing temps of around 9c starting next week so someone's got it badly wrong.

To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?

Ties in more with the Met Office forecast I watched recently.

But at odds with the Met Office forecast I just watched which seemed to be indicate milder air pushing in. Have to admit to being confused at the moment.

Steve what are your thoughts on any milder air being suppressed by surface cold where there is lying snow. Is this something that the models factor in ?

With regards possible temps at the end of the week Nick, what are your thoughts about temps where there is lying snow ? Are those numbers factored into the models so could milder temps be suppressed at the surface ?

Wouldn't the surface cold be enhanced by lying snow ? I am not sure how much the models factor this in.

or rain.

I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.

Last para Steve did you mean to say "if anyone draws a conclusion that it would NOT be snowing" ?

Sorry Blue, for us novices, can you briefly explain re "step by step movement in a single direction, run by run". Thanks.

Many thanks Dan. If I am understanding correctly then, with regards precipitation, in the coming days we shouldn't be looking so much at what there is on the near continent as any precipitation will be determined by the high/steep lapse rates & sst's over the north sea ie in this instance, the low countries might see very little snowfall whereas we "could" see more and therefore the references to lake effect snow.

Apologies as I'm sure you would have already mentioned this but is ECM out on its own with this one or is it getting some support from the other models as well ? If so does it appear to be a growing trend ?

Thanks for the explanation Dan. To help us complete novices out, can you briefly explain please in layman's terms what you mean by thicknesses and high lapse rates.

Based on the above, would you say that GFS model predictions indicating the cold spell could end by around 8th March is likely and therefore a 2 week cold spell is unlikely..

Hmmm so we have this and signs from GFS that the Atlantic could get through by 8th March. If I have been reading correctly this seems at odds to what was being predicted before ie no end in sight to the cold reload after reload. All a long way off and there will be changes but the first signs of a wobble perhaps. If the ensembles are correct of course.

Thanks for that will enjoy trying to find out how it works.

If the models are showing that the cold pool may begin to lap our shores on Sunday, I guess it will be beginning its migration across Europe in the not too distant future. It would be good to see what tools we have to monitor its progress and severity against what is being modelled. Those early signs may well give us an idea of what to expect.

What did your post from earlier say please Carinthian. I guess it was a forecast in your part of the world ?