[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Before the 18's rollout.

For those who can comment on these things (definitely not me), with regards today's weather, it would be interesting to know which model(s) picked up the signal first that the synoptics would turn out as they did and forecasted that today would be mainly snowy in the south east. Also how many days ago those signals were picked up. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Think the Water Table is soooo high its just not got a chance to settle, that or get stuck under some yellow on radar for about 30 mins. Colder weather still to come in think Uppers get to -11c around Middday

I honestly can't recall it being this wet for so long and it seemed to begin around October. My garden has never been as wet and at times partly flooded as it has this autumn/winter. Actually just seeing the first signs of some of this snow trying to bind together but seems it has a long way to go.   

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

10z Obs

Temp is -0.6c

Dewp is -1.2c

Feel Like Temp is -5.4c

Wind from the NE at 12mph gusting to 25mph

Snow Depth is Zero

With regards those readings Paul, in our neck of the woods, what do you think they need to be before any of this settles ? I did always wonder if the snow would have trouble settling on saturated ground but I am sure it is much more scientific than that. Personally, I think it can carry on like this all day and none will settle but if the flakes become bigger and heavier then I'm sure that would give us a better chance.     

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

10 hours ago, Essex Chelle said:

Hey fellow islander - looking great for us for once aye!

Hoping we are in the firing line Chelle. This is from '87. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

It feels like the night before a holiday or even Christmas eve, I'm that excited. I just watched the BBC weather video on their site - so much white and its all over me!!! Does that mean home schooling will be off as surely its a snow day on Monday

Well Chelle if your garden overfloweth then so will mine. Fingers crossed.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

SE Essex out near Foulness - The East wind was so strong they had to plough through to villages cut off for 5 days and made a dome over the roads - Have some pictures somewhere 

48cm of level snow in some spots

Best snowfall in my lifetime. 50+cm in some places here and a guy I know who lives in Great Wakering had a 12 foot drift up the side of his house. Some really impressive icicles as well.   

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, Lord Grogon said:

Oh to be living in Germany now. No worries about being on the edge of the snow band there....

On a stiff beasterly I was hoping all that was coming our way.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Yes. We had 30 inches level snow up on the Downs near BrandsHatch

 

it was epic 

Fantastic. Wasn't it great. Lasted about a month from what I recall. I don't know if/where you can post photos but I have a great one from that spell.   

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

10 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Calamity in EA and SE if that comes off.

 

 

Can you imagine what it was like with 21 inches in '87.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

You should be in a good place

 

If I am I'll look out my front window and wave. I can see Leigh from here.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

24 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

that's exactly what i mean, Steve

Streamers are the product of convection 

I'll be happy to join in with some streamers.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

35 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Based on all the models I've seen in the past 24 hours, this is my interpretation, well it was a picture or 1000 words  

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?     

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

29 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The low we are watching- and waiting for it move aside- is currently over Ireland  with it's fronts straddling the borders-cold air to the north.

It gradually moves east and absorbs  a secondary wave into it's circulation which has come up from France so maybe this is what you refer to? T00hrs and t48

Then we see the low gradually ease away to the position in the southern north sea as shown on the t96/120 fax's,all these from the 00z ukmo run.

We can see by day 5 how the easterly cold air is coming south around the rear of the low as it makes way.

I hope that helps.

Appreciate that Phil, always good to learn and in my case that's a lot. If you don't mind me asking the occluded front (I think that's what it is called - line below L1002) as it is spinning anti-clockwise, does that then get pulled on an easterly towards our shores ? and an IMBY question, if that's correct, would that be likely to move north as it does so or sink south ? Thanks again.          

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

51 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The cold spell now within sight and good agreement at day 5 between the ukmo op and the ecm mean on the 850's coming right down the country.

The low moving just far enough off the e.anglian coast so that the stiff easterly flow affects pretty much everywhere .

Current charts will not yet have a handle of snowfall detail wrt amounts and locations. but i think it's reasonable to expect snow showers coming from the east with every chance of more organised streamers of disturbances being picked up nearer the time.

Now the battleground is further south hopefully all snow loving members will have a chance to join in the fun.

Slightly confused. Didn't the low move out of the south east into France ? The low you mention off east anglian coast is another low or have I lost the plot... which is very likely? Just looking to be educated. All very fascinating that's for sure.     

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

My avatar!

I dream of seeing this occur again in our country.

You can keep your 'marginal' wet snow/slush fests, this was the real deal! 

Gave 2 feet of snow here and from memory snow lay on the ground for a month with ice floes in the Thames. I have some incredible photo's from that event.    

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

35 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Yes but generally only when there is snow in the air.

Or a Greenland High knocking about.........those that know know. He is a good poster, enjoy reading what he has to say. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

16 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

You British say: Boom Germans: Der Hammer.

Wonderful chart. Are things getting better with the turning of the month?

I wonder if they also say Tag Zehn or Zwolf in this case. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

4 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

What difference would the high shown over Greenland make ? To my very untrained eye that look very different so I suspect whichever is right would affect the evolution ?  

There were two images shown on MWB's post.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

23 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

My eyes are at T120, and the trough coming off Newfoundland

That's a little close for comfort. It's currently negatively tilted, encouraging sufficient build of heights to allow a northerly. But the ridge ahead of it is small. Any smaller, and the trough may go over rather than under, and the ridge will collapse. I think? Hopefully the SSW will do something magical and prevent the collapse!

What difference would the high shown over Greenland make ? To my very untrained eye that look very different so I suspect whichever is right would affect the evolution ?  

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its like deja vu on here!

One minute winters off then its on then its off.

At what point are people going to realise the models cant model further than probably 96 hours in a ssw?

More emotions than a bi polar man on bi polar street in the district of bi polar.

Stick to the means and and try not to proclaim a way forward.

Everything is ticking along nicely.

Listen to Mr Holmes compare 0z with 0z 12z with 12z etc

I leave all of this to those who know far more than me but I have always known that until the models get to something like t72 then it's best not to think anything is certain. My rule of thumb is also not to take anything for granted until headed chaps such as Mr Holmes, Bluearmy and a few others are on board.       

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And there she is upgrade 

Don't tell me....it's Day 10. 

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

BEEB change there forecast every day - don’t take it literally, they tend to use old data too.

BEEB never get things right especially temps!

Well it would certainly be great to see them get it wrong this time. Hasn't it often been said that they have access to data the public don't get to see ? 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I know ( for a change ) its a slightly IMBY post but is 100% model related.

The high res models now working on T48 & below-

HIRLAM goes for 5-6cm over the hills in the SE - maybe low ground as well. Could be higher at the core of the streamer.

I am in a similar location Steve but for the short term seems to me the Beeb are definitely saying rain. I notice they say unsettled later this week so perhaps some hope there. I have been watching these models for probably 15- 20 years myself and, based on no scientific knowledge (which is why I prefer to just read what knowledgeable posters like yourself and a few others say) whatsoever, seemingly when it comes to winter prospects unless it is in the T72 range the chances of things going "wrong" are quite high. The almost total flip around in the models (ECM/UKMO) last night v this morning being just another example. Like I say though no scientific knowledge at all to back up that judgement.         

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems the UK borders are closed to European cold.

That will be down to brrrexit.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

in the 10/12 day period - yes.  Thereafter I expect the meteograms will show if the average max is creeping up.  Over the past few  runs, we’ve seen an uptick by a degree or so on the mean maxes. Of course we don’t live in a world where the mean is always right so we have to take other factors into account.  would be a surprise if we don’t have a battleground situation at some point .....we just want the cold to fight back to keep the battlefields  white rather than wet!  

I know very little about these things but after the 10/12 day period isn't that when we would be expecting the SSW to be affecting the models.