Youcan'tbecirrus

Before the 18's rollout. For those who can comment on these things (definitely not me), with regards today's weather, it would be interesting to know which model(s) picked up the signal first that the synoptics would turn out as they did and forecasted that today would be mainly snowy in the south east. Also how many days ago those signals were picked up.

I honestly can't recall it being this wet for so long and it seemed to begin around October. My garden has never been as wet and at times partly flooded as it has this autumn/winter. Actually just seeing the first signs of some of this snow trying to bind together but seems it has a long way to go.

With regards those readings Paul, in our neck of the woods, what do you think they need to be before any of this settles ? I did always wonder if the snow would have trouble settling on saturated ground but I am sure it is much more scientific than that. Personally, I think it can carry on like this all day and none will settle but if the flakes become bigger and heavier then I'm sure that would give us a better chance.

Hoping we are in the firing line Chelle. This is from '87.

Well Chelle if your garden overfloweth then so will mine. Fingers crossed.

Best snowfall in my lifetime. 50+cm in some places here and a guy I know who lives in Great Wakering had a 12 foot drift up the side of his house. Some really impressive icicles as well.

On a stiff beasterly I was hoping all that was coming our way.

Fantastic. Wasn't it great. Lasted about a month from what I recall. I don't know if/where you can post photos but I have a great one from that spell.

Can you imagine what it was like with 21 inches in '87.

If I am I'll look out my front window and wave. I can see Leigh from here.

I'll be happy to join in with some streamers.

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?

Appreciate that Phil, always good to learn and in my case that's a lot. If you don't mind me asking the occluded front (I think that's what it is called - line below L1002) as it is spinning anti-clockwise, does that then get pulled on an easterly towards our shores ? and an IMBY question, if that's correct, would that be likely to move north as it does so or sink south ? Thanks again.

Slightly confused. Didn't the low move out of the south east into France ? The low you mention off east anglian coast is another low or have I lost the plot... which is very likely? Just looking to be educated. All very fascinating that's for sure.

Gave 2 feet of snow here and from memory snow lay on the ground for a month with ice floes in the Thames. I have some incredible photo's from that event.

Or a Greenland High knocking about.........those that know know. He is a good poster, enjoy reading what he has to say.

I wonder if they also say Tag Zehn or Zwolf in this case.

There were two images shown on MWB's post.

What difference would the high shown over Greenland make ? To my very untrained eye that look very different so I suspect whichever is right would affect the evolution ?

I leave all of this to those who know far more than me but I have always known that until the models get to something like t72 then it's best not to think anything is certain. My rule of thumb is also not to take anything for granted until headed chaps such as Mr Holmes, Bluearmy and a few others are on board.

Don't tell me....it's Day 10.

Well it would certainly be great to see them get it wrong this time. Hasn't it often been said that they have access to data the public don't get to see ?

I am in a similar location Steve but for the short term seems to me the Beeb are definitely saying rain. I notice they say unsettled later this week so perhaps some hope there. I have been watching these models for probably 15- 20 years myself and, based on no scientific knowledge (which is why I prefer to just read what knowledgeable posters like yourself and a few others say) whatsoever, seemingly when it comes to winter prospects unless it is in the T72 range the chances of things going "wrong" are quite high. The almost total flip around in the models (ECM/UKMO) last night v this morning being just another example. Like I say though no scientific knowledge at all to back up that judgement.

That will be down to brrrexit.

I know very little about these things but after the 10/12 day period isn't that when we would be expecting the SSW to be affecting the models.