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Everything posted by Youcan'tbecirrus

  1. Totally at odds with the BBC then. London news just showing temps of around 9c starting next week so someone's got it badly wrong.
  2. To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?
  3. But at odds with the Met Office forecast I just watched which seemed to be indicate milder air pushing in. Have to admit to being confused at the moment.
  4. Steve what are your thoughts on any milder air being suppressed by surface cold where there is lying snow. Is this something that the models factor in ?
  5. With regards possible temps at the end of the week Nick, what are your thoughts about temps where there is lying snow ? Are those numbers factored into the models so could milder temps be suppressed at the surface ?
  6. Wouldn't the surface cold be enhanced by lying snow ? I am not sure how much the models factor this in.
  7. I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.
  8. Last para Steve did you mean to say "if anyone draws a conclusion that it would NOT be snowing" ?
  9. Sorry Blue, for us novices, can you briefly explain re "step by step movement in a single direction, run by run". Thanks.
  10. Many thanks Dan. If I am understanding correctly then, with regards precipitation, in the coming days we shouldn't be looking so much at what there is on the near continent as any precipitation will be determined by the high/steep lapse rates & sst's over the north sea ie in this instance, the low countries might see very little snowfall whereas we "could" see more and therefore the references to lake effect snow.
  11. Apologies as I'm sure you would have already mentioned this but is ECM out on its own with this one or is it getting some support from the other models as well ? If so does it appear to be a growing trend ?
  12. Thanks for the explanation Dan. To help us complete novices out, can you briefly explain please in layman's terms what you mean by thicknesses and high lapse rates.
  13. Based on the above, would you say that GFS model predictions indicating the cold spell could end by around 8th March is likely and therefore a 2 week cold spell is unlikely..
  14. Hmmm so we have this and signs from GFS that the Atlantic could get through by 8th March. If I have been reading correctly this seems at odds to what was being predicted before ie no end in sight to the cold reload after reload. All a long way off and there will be changes but the first signs of a wobble perhaps. If the ensembles are correct of course.
  15. If the models are showing that the cold pool may begin to lap our shores on Sunday, I guess it will be beginning its migration across Europe in the not too distant future. It would be good to see what tools we have to monitor its progress and severity against what is being modelled. Those early signs may well give us an idea of what to expect.
  16. What did your post from earlier say please Carinthian. I guess it was a forecast in your part of the world ?
  17. You are not a voice to be ignored John, how do you see this all panning out and when would you expect the "heat up" to occur ?
  18. It will be interesting to track temps across the relevant cities across Europe as it makes progress.
  19. Seeing comments Steve saying the models show a dry easterly. What are your expectations with regards how precipitation would form in this set up ? instability caused as the cold air crosses the north sea ? Re the 1987 event, I seem to recall there being a big low in Europe which led to 2 feet of snow where I live (below sea level).
  20. Thanks tight isobar. Very limited understanding of all this unfortunately but could we basically expect ground temps of something around 3 degrees colder than average for this time of year if the chart verifies ?
  21. Thanks Catacol I've a lot to learn,not least on the terminology,but when people like yourself get interested then I sit up and take notice.
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