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Ayrshire weather

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Everything posted by Ayrshire weather

  1. Shocking thing is that all these charts with the start of beast 2 in just 5 days! Hmm
  2. Personally i think GFS is having a hard time with all this! It's unusual territory for it and is clearly struggling been model watching for 4 years and not seen anything like this... To me GFS is just stuck and keeps making nonsense paths for the low pressure!
  3. On a more enjoyable note this weather event has improved my health... I now get at up at 6am every morning before I was very lazy so just shows how enjoyable weather can be and how much excitement has came with this beast!
  4. I think GFS is slowely backing from this idea as it tries to forecast the Jet stream... The low is much weaker in this run and if that trend continues the low will most likely be killed off by Monday/Tuesday GFS runs
  5. GFS 18Z almost killing off that low at +120 much weaker than the 12z run!
  6. At a loss why 12z and 18z are almost identical yet almost 1 week away! Something not right here my guess is that models are struggling with the affects of the Cold and the second SSW effect its almost like the models have stalled and unsure how to progress!
  7. Sorry thats my fault still new to this think iv'e got this a but wrong mind u Scotland looks not to bad however most likely will change near time!
  8. Second attack at +216 please forgive I'm new to this so a little unsure looks a mix between NE and E winds!
  9. Good if not very good so far at +120h with the Colder Air slightly more north while the Azores low slipped south! Hopefully this trend continues through the run!
  10. +165 gets even better with everything more further west much colder Air over the UK compared with 0z run and looks like a second wave arriving from the NE
  11. Loving this run so far... The low to the Azores has been flattened out at +156h with slightly colder Air still over the UK compared with the 0z run!
  12. Still going well on the 06z at +138h not worried about the low at the Azores on this run everything is pushed a bit more west... Something hopefully the 12z run will continue this trend!
  13. Although not a huge change so far on the 06z run it does show slightly deeper cold and maybe a slightly more northern push or a better aligned Easterly... So far so good!
  14. I'm new to all this model runs ect... What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?! Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS? Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this
  15. The slightly milder Air to the west seems to be acting like a wall... it's a great chart just wish that slightly milder Air would break down to allow the cold to flood in a more westerly direction
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