Rayth

Id love you to go head to head with that guy ! You and your trustworthy analogues and him and his vast knowledge

GFS 06z hanging around with its mates until the big day then hammers the sherry , off on it own session

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022 Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs

You should copy right ‘the cyclogenetic positive tilt bomb’ before Star Wars steal it brilliant

Big Joe Bastardi ripped the GFS a new one on his Saturday summery yesterday citing how the tropics along the pacific are wholly wrong, therefore the GFS is a mess from the very start of every run , could be right , could be wrong but compared to the ECM and GEM the region is very very different in his analysis

The state of the PV , looks like someone’s threw a grenade in it

Blimy there’s a lot going on our vicinity here , where do you start

Well the Americans are getting excited , shame it’s behind a paywall , ‘an unusual climate phenomenon’

Momentum you mean

Already met office warnings out for Northern Scotland for Wednesday , 4-10cm in brisk northerly winds, oh its getting very tantalizing

When two stalagmites start interfering with the upper air temperature here , for Christ sake GFS

The PV is taking another kicking too

I’m half nervous about asking this question but does anyone know what happened to Bringback1962/63 ? Was a lovely guy and taught me quite a bit over PM , was just thinking about what he’d make of this current output He hasn’t been on the American site 33andrain for two years either

My eyes are drawing east , is another scandi high in its infancy

That’s the 00z the 12z is loaded

So I read that a SSW usually has a 2/3 chance of turning the UK cold, knowing our luck it will deck the cards in line for the US and ruin our blocking and I’m a glass half full kinda guy Yep and those wise owls will also reiterate constantly that nothing is ever guaranteed, meteorologically speaking

If this Arctic profile persists, surely the strat is on the ropes , behind on the scorecards and needing a knockout in the later rounds ?

This is actually a very accurate measuring tool A skill gauge that all NWP output can dream of

You lost me at ‘CFS’

I see you @s4lancia And I raise you

Don’t ! Dont ! I seen this on a select few of EPS and GEFS runs and was hoping an op wouldn’t jinx it! I’m going to digress a touch and give you a pat , you’ve been calling a cold December since the back end of September , so Kudos if this all transpires

Speaking of which , how is the PV doing at the moment ? You used a great analogy the other day about a spinning wheel

Best set of ensembles since this saga began

Well, their wording can be as fickle as inter model runs so it's best not to place any bets on those paragraphs

And the ECM takes a machete to the vortex