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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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    Tywydd, syrffio a sieclo

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  1. High pressure fest across UK & Ireland on the GFS! Is it too early for me to crack open a bottle and start celebrating the expected return of the high next week?
  2. GFS 0z showing the heaviest/most persistent rain to be pushing further east during the week ahead so Ireland would become much drier and perhaps much less rain falling than recently across parts of Wales and SW England once we get through this wet weekend
  3. Bore da pawb - good morning everyone from a cloudier & cooler southwest Wales after yesterday's warmth with 27C on the west coast as forecasted by all weather models from around 5 days or so ago the fresher air has arrived already and will remain across western areas of the UK throughout the week ahead which will starting from tonight, bring cooler nights and any heat being confined to the east. The wettest weather around during the next 5 days will be in NW Scotland with heavy rain at times, W Ireland and another area running up through the Irish Sea, some showers possible in the east too.
  4. Well for SW areas of the UK, the models have consistently shown any real warmth to be nothing more than a 'glancing blow' on Saturday, this still remains the case as 25-26C is still very much possible, sea breezes around the coast will keep it a bit cooler but still very pleasant and with a high UV in all areas. Sunday then turns much fresher with a mix of cloud and sunshine and it looks like staying dry into the start of next week, so looking pretty good even though the warmth only lasts a day. Some reasonable CAPE by Monday in eastern areas but I don't think much will come out of it. ️
  5. A much drier 10 days outlook to look forward to here in SW UK and turning warmer too with 23-24C possible in SE Wales and highs of 22-23C in Devon
  6. Looking better for the south from 9 days or so time, high pressure returning but how influential it'll be throughout the following 4 weeks of summer who knows?
  7. Well we really can't complain here in SW UK, it's been a dry July so welcome rain for many, just a shame it has to be during the kids holidays. I heard that Milford Haven has had about 50mm less than the July average of 70mm. I'll put a fiver on there being a return to high pressure and fine weather when the kids start back to school in September as it happens here about 95% of Septembers lol
  8. Scattered overnight thunderstorms Tuesday night across SW England & Wales quickly clearing the very warm, sultry air away by Wednesday morning leaving a fresher feeling day but still pleasantly warm (high teens / low 20's) and perhaps most importantly, turning drier again under a weak ridge, still hot & humid further east with a continuing risk of thunderstorms breaking out
  9. Indeed, surface temperatures were very high last year all thanks to prolonged dry weather with light winds, coastal west Wales for example was frequently hitting the high 20's especially in June but all that daytime heat didn't go very far overnight either, Mumbles weather station nr Swansea recorded quite a few nights with a minimum overnight temperature of 20C, something which thankfully hasn't occurred so far this year
  10. Another day when the GFS shows a whopping amount of CAPE together with a very high negative lifted index. But of course let's not get excited as it's three times it's shown this for southwestern areas in the last 10 days. Looks like more tweaking is still needed on this model regarding these values, they're still way overdone
  11. Unusually strong to gale force gusts of wind with that heat though for here in southwestern UK so that'll really take the edge of the temperature I'd have thought
  12. Some big CAPE showing for southern areas on Wednesday night into Thursday but high pressure 1020-1025mb is close by so perhaps less risk of rain/thunderstorms around by then
  13. These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold
  14. S&E you mean? Not much showing for the west atm anyway
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