Jump to content

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

95 Very Good

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Interests
    Tywydd, syrffio a sieclo

Recent Profile Visitors

555 profile views
  1. According to the long term CFS, after a colder than average December, Jan & Feb is average followed once again by a very cold March, personally I'd have liked to have seen that in Jan/first half of Feb as the days would still be quite short with a weak sun and cold sea temperatures giving southern & western coasts some snow too and not just the cold old rain/sleet but having said that, March delivered for us this year in South Wales, it was so unusual battling through blizzards during St Davids day celebrations
  2. That's certainly possible as here on the coast in South Wales, the last week of October brought us 4 frosty mornings which is unusual as the sea temp in our part of the Bristol Channel was around 15C, just a week later it fell to 13C but after the mild, wet weather last week it remains at 13C
  3. Wow what a cold chart that looks across C&S Europe! Although I feel sorry for the ROI being left out with average temperatures and even slightly above in the far SW
  4. That usually plays a big part, to give an example storm Callum brought 150-200mm over higher ground in south Wales but here on the coast in Porthcawl only about 45-50mm fell. GFS shows 130+mm in Swansea, personally I think it's overdoing the rainfall or we'd be looking at 400+mm over higher ground
  5. Still no good news whatsoever from the GFS 6z and I fear here in South Wales we could be looking at more flooding again just 3 weeks after the last lot fortunately there are signs of the Atlantic lows managing to finally start breaking through by the end of the week and push the blocking high slightly further east and allow the unsettled, less mild weather to reach the continent and while this isn't good news for cold lovers it does at least get the rainbands moving through much quicker instead of lingering in the same areas so rainfall totals shouldn't be so high. In the meantime though it'll be another busy week for us watching the river levels once again
  6. Omg it looks like we're back to square 1 on the GFS 0z with very wet weather for many western areas, over 100mm in places during the week ahead (even parts of SW England would be hit this time after escaping the floods that occurred in W Scotland and S Wales last month) Thank goodness half term was a decent week because next week looks dreadful with a capital 'D' lets hope there won't be too much flooding again
  7. Ah that's not good news at all as only 3 weeks ago we had some bad flooding in South Wales from a stalled rainband which rapidly increased some of the river levels
  8. For those attending firework displays next Saturday, early indications show it being very mild even at 8pm with temperatures widely into the teens away from Scotland & Ireland where it would be colder and a bonfire would be handy
  9. That's much better for the half term holidays there is a risk of heavier rain by next weekend but on the whole it's looking much drier on GFS than previously shown especially for western areas where earlier on this week 100mm+ showed firstly for ROI then west Wales and then NW Scotland
  10. A big change on the GFS, gone is that stalled band of heavy rain in the Irish Sea. We do see some large totals showing in NW Ireland and W Scotland but even these don't occur until next Fri/Sat so a long, long, long way off
  11. Still keeping a close eye on that potential stalled rainband that showed over Ireland the other day on the GFS latest run has now moved it east, so heaviest rain Tue & Wed with 90mm close to the coast of south Pembrokeshire but rainfall totals would be much more over higher ground if it stalls across Wales like storm Callum done about a fortnight ago. This could be bad news for the half term holidays next week with a risk of some flooding again but of course it's still 6 days away, so there's plenty of time for things to change.
  12. Well the good news is it looks almost certain now there'll be a taste of Winter this weekend with below average temperatures. However I'm keeping a close eye on that low to the west next week as in terms of rainfall that looks a bit of a troublemaker with a stalled rainband. Currently the heaviest of the rain is over S & SE Ireland but a shift of 100 miles or so east could bring another deluge to Wales just a fortnight after the flooding here and also with next week being half term many people will be out and about. It appears to be similar ie most of the rain falling in 48 hours
  13. If only this was the end of November, we could have been looking at some impressive snow in that flow but as it'll only be the last day of British Summertime and the sea temperatures are still currently mild/ very mild in the Irish Sea, Bristol & English Channel as well as the southern part of the North Sea I doubt there'll be much to get excited over yet. Further north though it's a different story especially across high ground
  14. High pressure dominated GFS 6z until towards the end so early indications for half term show it being very settled during the first half of the week with the high slap bang over the UK & Ireland but potentially becoming unsettled during the second half with a risk of gales developing as Atlantic lows push in, but of course its very early days yet. In the more reliable timeframe it's mostly settled with variable cloud and sunny spells, pleasant days but chilly nights, typical Autumn weather
  15. Lovely strong blocking high to the west of Ireland next week. This would bring cooler conditions than lately but most importantly would allow the ground to dry out and a lowering of rivers once again after the awful flooding in places here in South Wales last weekend.