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    Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL

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  1. Thats not true unless you live 150m up a hill. PM airstreams don't deliver for the NW as much as you might like to think they do. GFS not looking too bad in all honesty though we are at the mercy of short waves..
  2. 2m temperatures at day 8 and 9 are rubbish (even at short range they are too) and quite frankly everything at that range is rubbish the FI isn't gospel..
  3. Frosty start turned into a relatively nice day. Daffodils and snowdrops rearing their head out now in the still relatively desolate garden. Something tells me it'll stay desolate for quite a while..
  4. I don't see any short wave over Finland though you probs see it (I have little experience)
  5. I'm here in Derry, NW Ireland. We were earmarked to get some of the worst of the PM blast, with the models predicting plenty of snow showers, a lot of people were pushing it on here as "The most potent PM" or ramping it to an unnecessary degree. What did we get? A bit of sleet and thats it as a low leveller. It is unfortunate really that a lot of people on the MAD thread can have the disposition to unnecessarily ramp and when things go rotten, others decide to depress the rest. Its childish really. Writing off runs when they aren't done, ignoring certain models and pushing others because it shows a favourable outcome. Too many times this winter have we had the same rampers quote the FI and treat it as gospel, the next day they are nowhere to be seen. Same for the depressants. Edit: Not too long ago when I think there was a slack easterly or something, and a run gave off something really well people started going into hysteria in the MAD thread. Its not giving you a good shape if you are a newcomer and don't know who to ignore and who to actually pay credence towards.
  6. Something in me that thinks these birds always know whats coming before it happens. Same with Ophelia and the storms, they absolutely devoured the feeders before Ophelia came, don't know if it applies for cold weather though.
  7. Does anybody with knowledge know how far the showers would be pushed west? I.e far west of Ireland. The models don't take into account convection do they?
  8. This time, if the GFS verified if anything falls over here it won't be the usual wet sleet that drowns in the puddles on the ground. Lucking forward to it with big anxiety though knowing how far west I am!
  9. Yes mass hysteria indeed, dare I say Express level. Only gives people let downs, especially those who don't happen to be in the south east.
  10. The ECM often hasn't been able to put two and two together this winter, it shouldn't be ignored but judging by its history these few months and the consistency from other models we shouldn't be throwing our toys out yet.
  11. ECM has performed shockingly poorly this year, it can't put two and two together. Not to be ignored, but perhaps more runs needed.
  12. Just one ECM and ensembles were much better..
  13. The ECM often hasn't been able to put two and two together this winter let alone now be magically consistent each run. A run like this is inevitable to put us back in our place.
  14. All those kinks and bumps would deliver mental amounts of snow. Shows how unstable it is!
  15. 12Z coming out.. nerves on the line in the MOD thread!