WalsallWeather123
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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes but the two lows are much closer together than the 6z. Small changes -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surface cold, yes absolutely. But I'm sure most are chasing snow which we need a greenland high for this time of year -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A sceuro high wouldn't bring in deep cold from the NE like a greenland high would. Of course thing are going to get colder but for deep cold and snow we need a greenland high for this time of the year. A sceuro high won't cut it. Lets see what this GFS run will bring -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, the end of the run is quite poor. For all the talk of the ECM being an outlier, I can see the other models coming towards it in the coming days -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the GFS will come closer to the ECM this run -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON at T180 looks quite poor to me. Thoughts? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON upgrading the cold over the UK. Still looking like cold rain though -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Look at the GEFS mean. The block will collapse. It's fairly evident. Give it a few more days and the model will show it. We'll get a few chilly day with a bit of surface cold, but nothing signifcant, then the block will collapse -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Of course. Doesn't show at the moment but signs are there -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A weakening of the block and a return to Atlantic driven weather. I was blasted for saying this yesterday. Even more of a possibility today -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thats a 2015 chart? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I didn't say its not good. I was comparing to the GFS and yesterday ECM run and everyone just jumped on me lol -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But when it shows cold its ok to be obsessed with single run? The bias is ridiculous. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You can tell the ECM isn't great just by the lack of comments on the T192 and T216 lol -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WOW. Sensational T168 aswell. Real classic coming up -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM looking better @ 144 compared to 0z run. Heights pushing further north. Updated thoughts. I think we'll get a weak easterly followed by a more potent northerly which is the one to look out for. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is the worse possible chart to post lol -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Winter over lol. Genuinely can see this being a 2016. Full of hopes but nothing comes to fruition -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
JMA not great compared to yesterday -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We have half a chance of an easterly looking at the models. The problem is there's no real cold pool to tap into. OK it'll be chilly but not cold enough for snow IMO and it will be very dry. Frosty nights- yes, snow- probably not. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another seriously impressive end of GFS run for cold weather. I know it's FI and I am normally one of the biggest critics of long range charts but there is model consensus at T240 from all models and it is obvious that we are going to get a cold spell at the end of November. The building blocks are being built and you just have to put up with some mild southerlies for a while and things will cool down quick time. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS snow charts are ridiculous though. They also show sleet as snow and overestimate accumulation yet they still are widely used and treated as gold standard. Surely people should know this by now! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last year ICON was the best, IMO, believe it or not -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When it predicts snow it's the only model you see on here