WalsallWeather123
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will the -4 to -6 uppers give snow to low levels on 216-240 hours that the ECM shows? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the models prove to be correct, Scotland and the North of England (particularly the North West) will do well for snow over the next 2-3 weeks. The South of England will have to wait until February in my opinion if heights into Greenland/Iceland come to fruition. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A stonking chart from JMA T192. Snow showers piling in. Scotland and NW England would certainly do well from that. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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ARPEGE still looking good for snow
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All the Hi Res charts indicate a snow event across large parts of the midlands tomorrow. Whereas the longer range models (including ICON) show only rain. I know whos money mine is on.
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Huge change on ICON in only 6 hours. Thursday will be a nowcasting event. Not one model has a grip on it -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Big improvement from JMA in terms of cold potential. Yes by no means perfect but the low undercuts and there's an attempt at building heights towards Greenland as opposed to yesterdays run which bought mild southerlies. Fine margins but big differences possible -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
GFS Parallel also an improvement for cold at T120. The low in the Atlantic more elongated making it more likely to go under and allow cold air to be tapped into like the GFS Op -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We are into the range of the short range models and I found this chart interesting from the WRF-NMM. Shows a widespread snow risk on Wednesday morning. The models could well be underestimating the depth of cold coming up. A few weeks ago we had snow in the midlands from the brief northerly which wasn't forecast by any model so a few surprises could be in store. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Early thoughts on the GFS 18z. That area of LP south of the UK is further west, ideally you'd want it further east for better blocking and cold -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not seen it posted yet. But NAVGEM looks similar to ECM with the rebuilding of heights towards greenland enabling us to tap into he cold pool in the NE around day 9/10 -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM heading the same way. Sticking to its guns -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just catching up on the models. Certainly didn't expect snow forecast especially so far north into the Midlands -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will be interesting to see the EC mean but the OP is sticking to its guns big time -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Poor ECM for long term cold. Look at that trough at T120- too far west and north. Other models look to be coming towards this aswell -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You still want the trough more to the east to avoid an ECM style scenario. But a step in the right direction for cold -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As I've said on numerous occasions, the Atlantic will have a part to play in our weather. As shown above. Yes I know it may/may not happen, but again I wasn't trying to provoke anyone, the ECM clearly show still the possibility of an Atlantic influence. I was shot down before by some people -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I said a shift towards. Big difference between being the same mate. Read the post. Anyway, I'll stop posting as clearly a few people are bothered. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Huge shift from GFS to ECM (GFS 6z on right). I hope people finally realise I'm not trolling. I try and give a realistic view. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely. 6z was perfect was deep cold. But I said the GFS will move towards the ECM and it has, Everyone else was saying that the ECM op was an outlier and will join forces -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
WalsallWeather123 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Heading closer to a sceuro high is the GFS compared to 6z