[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

GFSP still going for snow on Tuesday

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

What I'm most disappointed about is that Tuesday seems to be almost nailed on as a rain event looking at majority of models when it had an oppurtunity for significant accumulations with heavy precipitition. Everything else is too far in FI.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Still looks pretty good. Connecting of the Arctic high at 144

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Very light snow here in Walsall. Any chance the precipitation will get heavier around the Bham area?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

I'm sure Steve Murr posted a few hours ago a good event for West Midlands to Wales for Tuesday.... so some disagreement

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ICON is awful for Tuesday aswell. Rain for most

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Just a snippet..... METO have briefed the Government that there's a 70% of 'severe cold' in early February.

Source?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

No it’s simply not showing anything because it’s too far in advance for it to show. Them charts are only any good within 24hrs and even then I think they are pretty dump tbh

It was showing it for the 0z run

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

36 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Also the 12z GFS is showing   Heavy Snow  for next Tuesday, we’ll virtually all the models are showing the same in a fashion, even Mr Murr in the Model thread has stated that the West Midlands ATM could be a prime spot....I’ve got a feeling our thread will be busy ??????? 



It's heavy precipitation as well so should accumulate quickly even if it will be wet snow

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

Not according to the charts i'm afraid. Appears to be non accumulating sleet/wet snow, 12z on top vs 6z bottom

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

GFS looking fine, keep calm!

I disagree. Looks like its going the way of the ICON to me. Let's see

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

2 minutes ago, Essan said:

Not even rain for me!

You should get snow imo

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Could be a hectic rush hour on Tuesday

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Heavy snow symbols on Met Office for Tuesday for Walsall

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS(P) still flat at T126

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

An upgrade now on the 6z. But like everyone else has said, GFS precipitation charts are notoriously quite poor. Snow chances for all.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

An improvement on the ICON 6z. More amplified to the NE. Not quite at the GFS/ECM level but a step in the right direction.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

FV3 not the best. Too far east at 138

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

As @Steve Murr says. Midlands westwards doing well on the 18z.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Looks like a whiteout. 

Better now lol. Not showing masses of snow but a fairly widespread risk.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS vs ICON. More chance of widespread snow on ICON.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Colder uppers further west on ICON 18z vs 12z with precipitation in the same place