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WalsallWeather123

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  1. Huge change on ICON in only 6 hours. Thursday will be a nowcasting event. Not one model has a grip on it
  2. Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold.
  3. Big improvement from JMA in terms of cold potential. Yes by no means perfect but the low undercuts and there's an attempt at building heights towards Greenland as opposed to yesterdays run which bought mild southerlies. Fine margins but big differences possible
  4. GFS Parallel also an improvement for cold at T120. The low in the Atlantic more elongated making it more likely to go under and allow cold air to be tapped into like the GFS Op
  5. We are into the range of the short range models and I found this chart interesting from the WRF-NMM. Shows a widespread snow risk on Wednesday morning. The models could well be underestimating the depth of cold coming up. A few weeks ago we had snow in the midlands from the brief northerly which wasn't forecast by any model so a few surprises could be in store.
  6. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Early thoughts on the GFS 18z. That area of LP south of the UK is further west, ideally you'd want it further east for better blocking and cold
  7. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Not seen it posted yet. But NAVGEM looks similar to ECM with the rebuilding of heights towards greenland enabling us to tap into he cold pool in the NE around day 9/10
  8. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    ECM heading the same way. Sticking to its guns
  9. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Just catching up on the models. Certainly didn't expect snow forecast especially so far north into the Midlands
  10. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Will be interesting to see the EC mean but the OP is sticking to its guns big time
  11. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Poor ECM for long term cold. Look at that trough at T120- too far west and north. Other models look to be coming towards this aswell
  12. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    You still want the trough more to the east to avoid an ECM style scenario. But a step in the right direction for cold
  13. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    As I've said on numerous occasions, the Atlantic will have a part to play in our weather. As shown above. Yes I know it may/may not happen, but again I wasn't trying to provoke anyone, the ECM clearly show still the possibility of an Atlantic influence. I was shot down before by some people
  14. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    I said a shift towards. Big difference between being the same mate. Read the post. Anyway, I'll stop posting as clearly a few people are bothered.
  15. WalsallWeather123

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    Huge shift from GFS to ECM (GFS 6z on right). I hope people finally realise I'm not trolling. I try and give a realistic view.
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