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  1. Also, it's worth noting that the FV3-GFS has a polar upper stratosphere cold bias that develops over the forecast period, so this type of temperature change at those levels will be there almost every day (barring significant disturbances).
  2. I'm not trying to take away from the great work you've done, but (admittedly, non-operational) 3D animations of the polar vortex have been made at least as far back as the early 90s. I know this because my PhD advisor, Dr. Gloria Manney made some of them: Figures 13-15 from the first (1994) paper below are associated with 3D animations of isosurfaces of the vortex edge and parcel trajectories that have been archived on ... VHS tape! This was back when 3D animations like these essentially required supercomputing resources (in this case, provided by the JPL supercomputing project!) Figure 5 of t
  3. Sorry for the delay. Interannual variability in the polar strat is very low this time of year, but I received such a large number of requests to put up the NH charts that I went ahead and switched stratobserve back to NH mode. Cheers?
  4. Yes, this. Please make the ECMWF, UKMO, and etc models as free, without restrictions, and easy to access as the GFS, and we would use them.
  5. Apologies if this is off topic now; I wrote the post that follows yesterday, but found I couldn't reply in this thread for whatever reason. Interitus is correct that caution is required when interpreting standard deviations in terms of probability without knowing the underlying distribution. However, the discussion of standard deviations in Interitus's post is based on historical raw values of heat fluxes (either grouped year-round or within individual months), not deseasonalized ones. The plots I have on StratObserve are standardized anomalies, which are based on deseasonali
  6. Looks like restarting is one of the Mozilla recommended solutions, but they also list one other if restarting doesn't work: https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/fix-bookmarks-and-history-will-not-be-functional Basically it boils down to recreating a database; this process will lose your browsing history, but will maintain your bookmarks from the most recent automatically-kept backup.
  7. Yeah, this was just a mistake that was posted on Twitter. The Charlton & Polvani 2007 paper specifically says: "... cases where the zonal mean zonal winds become easterly but do not return to westerly for at least 10 consecutive days before 30 April are assumed to be final warmings, and as such are discarded. This criterion ensures that following SSWs, a coherent stratospheric vortex is reestablished." The upcoming event will classify as a mid-winter SSW. How quickly the stratospheric circulation "recovers" after it remains to be seen, but forecasts (ensembles included) show it t
  8. Just want to address two points here: Amy Butler agreed that the Mar 2016 "major final warming" was a wave-driven event, but since the circulation never recovered, it just cannot be included on her table of CP07 events. Amy Butler has never said that the CP07 definition for SSWs is the "best" or "standard" definition -- it's just one of many definitions, but it is commonly used in the literature (see her paper on defining SSWs, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00173.1). I think her compendium of CP07 SSW dates is most helpful as a way to prevent errors in research &am
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