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CloudyBay

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  1. I think that there's a chance that once the sun starts to warm things up tomorrow morning then we could see the remaining southern bands gain enough energy to keep going north for a little further. At least that's my interpretation of the rationale behind the weather warnings further into the north west for tomorrow. Having said that, I didn't see any forecasts predict the intensity of the wind in this region tonight, it is certainly disruptive and it's full-on blowing to the west directly. So who knows.
  2. Is anyone following the situation on the M62? Sounds like a terrible night for those caught up in it. Whether you had as much snow as you wished for or not, at least be thankful that you're in a warm bed this evening! Live reporting here: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/m62-shut-today-weather-winds-14353566
  3. I think that's all for just about all of us in the region, at least until the sun rises. The red arrows on the image show the current wind direction, but not its intensity.
  4. Well, if this contraption is to be believed (and I'm not sure how much faith to place in models like this) then it looks like Lancashire and everywhere further south in the region will get some snow in the next few hours. Then there's a bank of showers on the far west of that active front, currently around The Wash, that could possibly dump snow into Cumbria later tonight. http://meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall# And then it all wheels away towards Ireland.
  5. I was near there earlier this morning. The main roads were fine and flights seemed to be going in and out.
  6. This is fascinating, thank you. So is it the case that the AI system would look at a given weather situation and all the inputs this entails, and then construct a probability-based forecast? (So to put it very crudely, if input 'x' has, 9 times out of 10, produced output 'y,' the prediction will therefore be 'y'. Obviously the real model would have to balance huge quantities of such outputs.) And is AI really purely based on historic data? Surely a system could also improve on its own accuracy by comparing its earlier forecasts to the actual weather that then occurred. So real
  7. The problem is, you're dealing with complex and ambiguous weather forecasts and the interaction of these with complex and real human beings. Yes, it's frustrating and yes a great deal of nonsense is propagated by people who should know better, but also remember the real gems here who add so much value to all of our knowledge about weather. Nothing is perfect.
  8. Is this the forecast you mean? https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43184987 If so, it's indeed interesting to see how much uncertainty is still being placed on the scenario from Thursday onwards, but that the the risks of blizzards into next weekend are now being emphasised.
  9. Yes, I want to echo those sentiments. Lurking here as I often do, it is amazing how much one can learn from some of the people here. I really appreciate the time and careful thought that so many people put in - I'm sure I'm not the only one who reads and learns so much but rarely comments. The combined pool of knowledge and experience here really is a good thing. Right, onto the models. The latest GFS model seems to show quite a lot of instability ploughing into southeastern UK from early Friday onwards, that low pressure blob and so on. My unashamedly newbie question is - to what ex
  10. I say to all those who feel this way - don't give up hoping! One day, sooner or later, you will wake up and be knee-deep in snow outside. When it does eventually happen it will be all the more sweet and memorable because of all the let-downs.
  11. Here's a live cam if you want to see that Mersey streamer hit land. Looks like it's quite stormy there! https://www.everymanplayhouse.com/about-us/webcam
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