Day_9

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t

The ensembles show my earlier point almost every time. Good clustering (consensus) up to 5, sometimes 6 days. After that anyones guess. in this latest case I would say after the cold spell, the signal is for seasonally average with the possibility of milder or colder outbreaks ahead…..

The fact that the wheels come off so quickly is just more reason to not to pin your hopes on anything that a model shows as a possibility- particularly beyond a 4/5 day timeframe. the global atmosphere is a chaotic system with so many variables that it is impossible to give anything other than broad outlines of possibilities. Because severe cold and snow is so rare for a small Atlantic island, any hint of that as a potential outcome gets people understandably very excited….. and the fall from that elation is long and painful. Many years of lurking on here tell me that the number of times snowmageddon forecast out at 240 actually verifies is probably in single percentage points.

Coming into the reliable now, that SW feature has been consistently modelled on enough runs across all models that it is a viable option on the table - although, at the drop of a hat it could all disappear……. but that would have been in previous years. Synoptically this year feels like extremely different, i mean we’ve got a totally shredded Atlantic , cross polar flow, an enormous pool Of bitterly cold air just about to smother us, and what is the vortex doing? “LOLZ”. so we could witness some memorable events especially given what has been a consistent signal since the autumn. Forget inter run variables, look at trends in the way of up or downgrades to help determine the most likely outcome in terms of longevity or severity. precipitation events that so many crave still a fair way off so ignore snowfall charts (although they are entertaining !!)

I got photos of me helping my old man dig his Hilman Imp out of the snow - don’t know why we even tried, the wall of snow from our drive onto the road was almost level with the roof of the house

If severe cold and the sort of snow many on here crave come off, we will have 24-36 hrs warning max.

Just go back to page 1-3 in this current thread……. Day 10 charts always look tantalising but they usually always flatter to deceive

That lovely angry little low out South West could absolutely blast the SW IF it ends up colliding next Sunday. Still 7 out, get it at 5 and we’re increasing probabilities

Mega lolz

Would be a once in a lifetime if it happened, but it’s one run amongst many every day and it’s 11 days out….. they do rather prod the imagination. This sort of chart would very quickly become misery for millions once the initial novelty was out of the way.

Is @tight isobar ok???

6z vs 12z gfs ensembles (for Cardiff): 12 looks cleaner/more confident but still a massive amount of scatter and look at the way some of the members just plummet which will clearly never happen that quickly, hence the air of cautions when getting excited about single members and single runs. Either way, a thankful period of dry for all those currently affected by floods, the last thing they need now is subzero.

Day 9. it isn’t worth a sausage, let alone a boom. Let’s come back here on the 14th January and see, looking at individual runs and foaming at the mouth about them is the quickest route to madness

Yes, it literally disappeared after a single run and everything went mild and wet for the rest of the winter. This place was beyond desperate. But it’s because those events are so relatively rare that folk pin all hopes on anything that shows it - however far out. It’s crazy when most know we’ve only got reasonable assurance up to 4/5 days out.

There is a massive difference between a single run (or even a single pert in a single run) showing narnia- like charts and actual verification - especially at 2 weeks out. If it can go wrong, then it probably will. It doesn’t take much for 3 days worth of bubbles to burst. we are thankfully going colder and more importantly, drier. It has done nothing but rain since June. i want to be able to get out in the fresh air. It has been a thoroughly depressing period. I don’t necessarily want to be penned in by ice days either. A bit of snow would be lovely for the kids for a week or so but the actual chances ???? Maybe we are overdue a big one, but an awful lot has to come together for it to happen. enjoy the charts, there are some absolute amazing synoptics at the moment.