Coming into the reliable now, that SW feature has been consistently modelled on enough runs across all models that it is a viable option on the table - although, at the drop of a hat it could all disappear…….
but that would have been in previous years. Synoptically this year feels like extremely different, i mean we’ve got a totally shredded Atlantic , cross polar flow, an enormous pool Of bitterly cold air just about to smother us, and what is the vortex doing? “LOLZ”.
so we could witness some memorable events especially given what has been a consistent signal since the autumn. Forget inter run variables, look at trends in the way of up or downgrades to help determine the most likely outcome in terms of longevity or severity.
precipitation events that so many crave still a fair way off so ignore snowfall charts (although they are entertaining !!)