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frederiksen90

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  1. frederiksen90

    Winter 2018/19

    It will be interesting to see if unusually low solar activity has an impact on the coming winter. Geomagnetic Activity (AP Index) is very low for 2018, which should be extremely well correlated with the winter's NAO: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11200-014-0508-z And this should undoubtedly be linked with the stratosphere. The question is whether this is related to the shift to negative NAO in late October and November, when pressure differentials in South Greenland are reduced. It is very exciting to follow the development as we have moved into the sun minimum.
  2. Further displacement and weakening of Polar Vortex in both GFS-ENS and EC-ENS. Recent forecasts dislocate PV completely across Baffin and America in mid January. In addition, there are significant dives in AO 10-15. January. Hope for the winter lives to that extent. Trends also look extremely promising in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies from both EC-ENS and GFS-ENS. Rising pressure anomaly over Scandi and later Arctic and Greenland from January 10th and onwards: http://www.meteociel.fr/.../2018010100/EDH101-240.GIF... http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-5-240.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-7-300.png
  3. frederiksen90

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Further displacement and weakening of Polar Vortex in both GFS-ENS and EC-ENS. Recent forecasts dislocate PV completely across Baffin and America in mid January. In addition, there are significant dives in AO 10-15. January. Hope for the winter lives to that extent. Trends also look extremely promising in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies from both EC-ENS and GFS-ENS. Rising pressure anomaly over Scandi and later Arctic and Greenland from January 10th and onwards: http://www.meteociel.fr/.../2018010100/EDH101-240.GIF... http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-5-240.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-7-300.png
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