whoosh replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global driversI'm but a devoted learner in atmos. sci. and this modeled 10hpa distribution of winds and temps seems quite unusual (especially in the strat), and unbalanced/unstable. By definition the SPV is a windfield encompassing the very cold temp values, which is certainly not portrayed here. Those are actual temps, not anomalies. The lower levels show a similar distribution, but not as extreme. Yes, I'm aware of all the public postings by strat scholars on wxtwitter describing the warming and split and "wellings" and "fluxes" attendant thereto. I also note that there should be a destructive measure of sunlight south of 70N by now. If this warming isn't "final" I sure don't see another down the road after this, even if there is some recovery of the westerlies as anticipated. Thanks to each of you for your contributions. I've learned things /s.
whoosh replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global driversI've seen it said that if all the GFS+240 outputs were to verify, the planet would be uninhabitable. /s Another expert in this field is Tormer Burg, who suggests that " Yesterday's bombogenesis over the Sea of Okhotsk & ridge amplification downstream is leading to major cyclonic wavebreaking over the WPAC, resulting in an anomalous block developing over E Russia. This will be a shift in E Russia which spent most of the month under a trough. In conjunction Alaska & W Canada return to near-normal heights as poleward heat flux temporarily decreases in the N PAC. " <twitter.com/burgwx/status/945750648015982592> Me, ..... I'm still trying to learn.