Lukemcd

Further to my above post can't see marginality coming into it after Friday especially with near ice days forcast

Actually, from what I have been reading on here I thought the upper temps are supposed to be getting colder the closer we get to the event? By recent standards this is supposed to be quite a potent spell, so snow is certainly possible IMO even with global warming I thought you were just referral to the initial frontal frontal passage on Thursday after that isn't it supposed to be cold enough for it to snow everywhere even at sea level? (Precipitation permitting of course)

I live in South Liverpool what do you think the chance of me seeing snow this week I would presume pretty high considering the output do you think will be OK in South Liverpool I presume we all could see something at some point

On that basis is a very mild December more likely to result in a mild January and February just wondering?

There is nothing scientific about a warm September = mild winter or no cold winter for the UK I find it strange as it does seem to be a statistical fluke IMO unless there is an actual scientifically proven connection. If it is a statistical fluke it is possible that it could be broken one day like with the poor summers ending in 8 statistical fluke - broken 2019? Otherwise just asking if you or someone else put forward a theory to why there is a warm September-mild winter link as there is no similar link for other months like warm/hot July=mild winter?

1.2C Luke

Yes but this winter has mainly been a descending westerly QBO or a transitional period so it is not possible to say that this winter was a pure negative QBO so we might have to wait until next winter to see the effect of that also I follow Gavs Weather Videos and when he was doing his winter forecast he forecast a slightly below average winter but he said he could not rule out a very mild winter due to the situation with the sea surface temperatures not being favourable he mentioned both the Pacific and the Atlantic explaining that a tripole pattern is normally favourable for a cold winter in NW Europe but he said at the beginning of December we have the opposite of a tripole in the Atlantic so we cannot rule out the possibility of the SSTs and the IOD causing issues for this winter. before 2008/09 it was said on these forums by a guy by the name of Ian Brown with his MW theory that we could not experience a winter like 1995/96 ever again but we all know that it was disproven by 2009/10 which was colder than 1995/96 and December 2010. Experiencing those events in my recent adult lifetime, never mind my whole life time makes it difficult to believe that we will not see similar events again in our lifetimes even with reduced frequency - as explained we had 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2018 not to forget March 2013 too which was the coldest March that many of us have experienced - I cannot believe that the ability to experience significant cold spells can be turned off like a switch especially in the context of a complex, chaotic system like weather and climate - I did Physics at University and I know that Meteorology involves a lot of physics, but unlike many branches of physics like particle physics and classical mechanics, weather and climate is particularly chaotic in other branches of physics I believe that Quantum Mechanics (uncertainty principle) and radioactive decay of the nucleus with random decay will be more approximate to this situation as I said I do not deny that global warming is happening I can't see how the possibility of significant cold events turn off like a switch metrology is not a black and white science. Luke

If it is the case that a prolonged cold spell in winter is no longer possible, then why did we get December 2010 as the coldest December in more than 100 years clearly looking at it from the perspective of that you could easily say that December 2010 or the coldest December for over 100 years would no longer be possible before 2008. Looking at it from a scientific perspective although I have no doubt that we have a warming climate, December 2010 was still less than a decade ago which is nothing in climatological terms, just a drop in the ocean - we are talking less than a decade ago never mind 1947/63/78 etc. So the question I would like to ask is not why this winter was mild, but why 2010 actually happened at all within this context. And we had significant cold in February/March 2018 only 2 years, yes 2 years ago. So even though the statistics show a warming climate, they also show IMO that it will be a long time before you can say that winter cold spells and cold and snow in UK winters are a thing of the past and anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand basic statistics and science IMO unless they can back this up with a theory to why the rate of change in our climate has accelerated rapidly over the last decade. You would expect the rate of warming to be more uniform, and in addition to this within this decade other parts of the world have had severe cold spells relative to average such as USA 2013-14 yes they have more of a continental climate but that was even more recently than 2010. So cold spells on our planet have certainly not gone away, it is just we have not had the right synoptic pressure patterns. I also want to ask this question of you too - Considering our warming climate if we had the same synoptic pattern as 1962-63 today, would it be as cold and snow as then? Regards, Luke

Hi Sunny, Chicago has a very high crime rate (murders/shootings especially) very high by our standards and they have colder winters than London so I doubt there is a link between cold weather and low crime rates maybe we could look at the crime stats of US cities that get cold weather and the effect on crime rates but on both sides of the Atlantic I would think it would be more to do with the weather discouraging people from going outdoors than anti social behaviour and boredom per say especially in the US cities that get severe winters. Regards, Luke