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Lukemcd

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  1. How are you Nick nice to talk again.  I want to know when I will be able to meet up with friends who are not from my household again as I have a very good friend that I see twice a week (before this kicked off) I know many other countries are now permitting inter household socializing France, Germany, Spain (I know in Germany one of the federal Lander is announced it is going against the national guidelines and is going to lift all mandatory restrictions).  I only have a small number of close friends that I normally meet on a one to one basis and I work from home so I have little contact with other people other than mum and dad so I would assess the risk to be very low.  Even in the UK Northern Ireland are allowing up to 6 people not from the same household to meet outside including private gardens, Scotland will let you so something similar for next week but I have heard nothing about relaxing the social aspects of the lockdown today only the economic and educational ones.   So why not more on meeting friends and family human contact is important in England you still cannot meet friends and family in a private garden which should now be allowed? I am a bit concerned as I have my birthday coming up on 18th July and I want to have a small number of friends around (no more than 3) for a barbeque in the garden - and I want to do it without fear of breaking any rules or laws.  I know the chances of transmission is very very low as long as we take adequate precautions.  These rules must not stay in place a second longer than is necessary once the community transmission is very low surely the burden of the restrictions on mental health etc outweighs their purpose in stopping the spread of Covid 19.  Just mentioning this as I want to know when I can see my friends again in the flesh or properly without having to meet them in a park only as I have autism and hate uncertainty and changes in routine surely the UK government should give us some more information on when such meetings will be allowed in England the exit strategy document for England was vague on this at least compared to some other countries.  Surley, if the restrictions on meeting friends and family remained in place when the risk of Covid was much diminished would it be subject to legal challenge? If no one in government bothered to relax it which is what I am worried about.  Also asking about what are the rules currently on inter household gatherings in France which is where you live and do you believe that in the UK this is now safe or will be shortly safe enough to allow it?

     

    Luke   

  2. Hi Kold, Further to my last message to you believe that it is now safe based on the data to allow inter household socialization? Outdoors? Or even indoors with precautions?

     

    Luke

  3. Hi Kold,

    How are you - you said that they should open up all aspects of outdoor retail and cafes etc as the cases and deaths are now falling quite readily and the R is below 1 but I want to know when I will be able to meet up with friends who are not from my household again as I have a very good friend that I see twice a week (before this kicked off) I know many other countries are now permitting inter household socializing France, Germany, Spain (I know in Germany one of the federal Lander is announced it is going against the national guidelines and is going to lift all mandatory restrictions).  I only have a small number of close friends that I normally meet on a one to one basis and I work from home so I have little contact with other people other than mum and dad so I would assess the risk to be very low.  Even in the UK Northern Ireland are allowing up to 6 people not from the same household to meet outside including private gardens, Scotland will let you so something similar for next week but I have heard nothing about relaxing the social aspects of the lockdown today only the economic and educational ones.   So why not more on meeting friends and family human contact is important in England you still cannot meet friends and family in a private garden which should now be allowed? I am a bit concerned as I have my birthday coming up on 18th July and I want to have a small number of friends around (no more than 3) for a barbeque in the garden - and I want to do it without fear of breaking any rules or laws.  I know the chances of transmission is very very low as long as we take adequate precautions.  These rules must not stay in place a second longer than is necessary once the community transmission is very low surely the burden of the restrictions on mental health etc outweighs their purpose in stopping the spread of Covid 19.

     

    Luke     

  4. Hi Nick,

    My name is Luke - I have conversed with before regarding the weather but I have Asperger's syndrome which includes increased levels of anxiety including health anxiety so I find anxiety difficult to deal with at the best of times and I have been on Escitalopram for over 10 years for anxiety which has been under control but now I am getting very, very worried and scared especially with autism you find it difficult adapting to change so I am very worried what is to come I have never grown up in an environment where we are told what to do by the state like war so I am feel very anxious at the moment do you think we can get this under control also being on the autistic spectrum I find social interaction difficult so friends and human contact is very important and I am scared that I won't be able to see them for a long time if these measures happen I am scared it is becoming like a nightmare for us Aspies especially as I have anxiety in normal circumstances like existential and medical anxiety going on this forum my heart sinks when I hear posts from intelligent posters saying no good news about coronavirus today I am afraid can you give me some advice considering my condition?  And do you think it will eventually get better?

     

    Luke

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    1. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Hi Luke, I’m not nick but maybe I can help? My advise is to limit as much as possible to what you read on the Internet not saying on this forum as much but there is a lot of fake news. When something gives anxiety you either avoid it completely or try to tackle and understand it? From this virus we know it has a very low death rate likely lower than 1% your life is not threatened. Literally everyone is in the same shoes, it has been 102 years since last major pandemic. So even those without Asperger’s are feeling very anxious but if you understand it more the less you should fear. We will get it through it and it won’t be easy but it will come to an end. ? 

    2. nick sussex

      nick sussex

      Hi Luke 

      Sorry to hear about the issues the coronavirus is having on you . It’s completely natural to feel under a bit more anxiety given the situation .

      Don’t feel that you’re alone here. And remember you’re not in a high risk group regarding the virus.

      I totally understand your feelings of increased anxiety over the virus , I have this , just as many other people do . 

      In terms of your network of support with friends and family , it’s important that you can discuss this with them . 

      And it’s also very important that you speak to your GP if the anxiety becomes more difficult .

      I know it seems that’s its just continuous bad news at the moment but things will get better eventually .

      It might be good Luke to take a step back and do some things that you get pleasure from .

      So take some time out from viewing media coverage of the virus .

      Feel free to message me , and I really hope things improve for you .

      My very best wishes to you Luke .

  5. Yes but this winter has mainly been a descending westerly QBO or a transitional period so it is not possible to say that this winter was a pure negative QBO so we might have to wait until next winter to see the effect of that also I follow Gavs Weather Videos and when he was doing his winter forecast he forecast a slightly below average winter but he said he could not rule out a very mild winter due to the situation with the sea surface temperatures not being favourable he mentioned both the Pacific and the Atlantic explaining that a tripole pattern is normally favourable for a cold winter in NW Europe but he said at the beginning of December we have the opposite of a tripole in the Atlantic so we cannot rule out the possibility of the SSTs and the IOD causing issues for this winter. before 2008/09 it was said on these forums by a guy by the name of Ian Brown with his MW theory that we could not experience a winter like 1995/96 ever again but we all know that it was disproven by 2009/10 which was colder than 1995/96 and December 2010. Experiencing those events in my recent adult lifetime, never mind my whole life time makes it difficult to believe that we will not see similar events again in our lifetimes even with reduced frequency - as explained we had 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2018 not to forget March 2013 too which was the coldest March that many of us have experienced - I cannot believe that the ability to experience significant cold spells can be turned off like a switch especially in the context of a complex, chaotic system like weather and climate - I did Physics at University and I know that Meteorology involves a lot of physics, but unlike many branches of physics like particle physics and classical mechanics, weather and climate is particularly chaotic in other branches of physics I believe that Quantum Mechanics (uncertainty principle) and radioactive decay of the nucleus with random decay will be more approximate to this situation as I said I do not deny that global warming is happening I can't see how the possibility of significant cold events turn off like a switch metrology is not a black and white science. Luke
  6. If it is the case that a prolonged cold spell in winter is no longer possible, then why did we get December 2010 as the coldest December in more than 100 years clearly looking at it from the perspective of that you could easily say that December 2010 or the coldest December for over 100 years would no longer be possible before 2008. Looking at it from a scientific perspective although I have no doubt that we have a warming climate, December 2010 was still less than a decade ago which is nothing in climatological terms, just a drop in the ocean - we are talking less than a decade ago never mind 1947/63/78 etc. So the question I would like to ask is not why this winter was mild, but why 2010 actually happened at all within this context. And we had significant cold in February/March 2018 only 2 years, yes 2 years ago. So even though the statistics show a warming climate, they also show IMO that it will be a long time before you can say that winter cold spells and cold and snow in UK winters are a thing of the past and anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand basic statistics and science IMO unless they can back this up with a theory to why the rate of change in our climate has accelerated rapidly over the last decade. You would expect the rate of warming to be more uniform, and in addition to this within this decade other parts of the world have had severe cold spells relative to average such as USA 2013-14 yes they have more of a continental climate but that was even more recently than 2010. So cold spells on our planet have certainly not gone away, it is just we have not had the right synoptic pressure patterns. I also want to ask this question of you too - Considering our warming climate if we had the same synoptic pattern as 1962-63 today, would it be as cold and snow as then? Regards, Luke
  7. Hi Sunny, Chicago has a very high crime rate (murders/shootings especially) very high by our standards and they have colder winters than London so I doubt there is a link between cold weather and low crime rates maybe we could look at the crime stats of US cities that get cold weather and the effect on crime rates but on both sides of the Atlantic I would think it would be more to do with the weather discouraging people from going outdoors than anti social behaviour and boredom per say especially in the US cities that get severe winters. Regards, Luke
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