smichling
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Posts posted by smichling
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29 minutes ago, SP1986 said:
Looking at the impact Matrix, it looks like southern areas may well get an amber warning first despite the potentially lower windspeeds, due to the effects that Eunice had on infrastructure and trees etc. Also Met Office are keen to point out there will be a squall line going through England and Wales with winds potentially up to 70mph on the line.
I've spotted some of the higher res models picking up on a pretty fierce squall line passing through on Sunday afternoon/evening depending how Far East you are. I expect it'll be talked about more and more later this evening as it looked quite impressive. AROME, UKV and UKMO showed it most clearly. Let's see what happens...
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5 minutes ago, Snowycat said:
There was talk earlier about a sting-jet. The thought of this terrifies me witless. Is this still being modelled and, although I know it is difficult to pin point, where is it likely to materialise. Or is this development just an outside possibility.
The AROME model has been showing a feature that looks reminiscent of a stingjet crossing the midlands through to EA. So it’s a possibility but these are so difficult to forecast and it’s the only model showing it. Just keep updated!
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5 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:
Hmmm…. Right through here then….
Don’t take my very vague forecast as gospel though! in all seriousness use the met office not what I or someone says here, however much we might want to be a pro forecaster we aren’t!
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Glad there's finally a red warning out, although I expect it'll grow this afternoon. Worth remembering that the current amber warning is already at the highest severity, only slightly down on confidence so the reasoning for a red upgrade would NOT be due to models showing stronger winds, but due to an increase in confidence. From this, I would expect a red to be issued this afternoon/evening if the sting jet feature is still present in the 12Z's. I would think it would stretch from APPROXIMATELY Kidderminster through Milton Keynes to Ipswich. The met are looking for confidence now not strength.
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Temperature at 3.8C in Reading. While I would say that's a touch too warm for snow chances, dewpoint has really fallen in the last hour, at -1.1C right now. Hopefully anything that falls overnight can make it as snow. Don't expect much to settle but will be a nice surprise in November to even see it falling.
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The weather station at University of Reading is showing Temp at 6.7C and Dewpoint Temp ay -15.2C !!! Thats a humidity of 19%, easily the lowest humidity reading I've seen.
Edit: -15.2 is the lowest dew point measurement in the last 30 years
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Well I'm having the heaviest snow of this spell so far in Reading... and its with bright sunshine! Quite strange but beautiful to watch!
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1 minute ago, snowbob said:
Can actually see this streaming to reading too
Time will tell
I'm in Reading and haven't been expecting anything until the winds change more Easterly, has this already happened? I can't see the current precipitation affecting me, happy to be proven wrong of course! (in fact I'm hoping for it!)
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Snow heavier in Reading now, hasn't taken too long to settle, grass starting to turn a lighter shade of green as it comes down. An hour or so of this could give a small covering
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I have a terrible lack of lampposts outside my university room! I might build one for myself outside if it looks like this cold is set to continue for a while!
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In the build up to a cold spell or a snowy event, I'll always switch from the model thread to the regional as we get into the 'home stretch', and I think tonight is my cue to do that!
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Hi everyone,
After all the flipping and flopping of the models, particularly the GFS over last weekend/early this week, I noticed a little pattern with them. I've demonstrated it in an EXTREMELY unscientific graph . The graph itself is quite self-explanatory but its fits in quite well with how this cold spell has come into view. Over the weekend we were approximately 8/9 days away (taking Sunday 7th as the start) and at that time we would see an amazing run, followed by an awful one, I think we had an excellent 12z one day, and after a run like that its almost INEVITABLE to have a downgrade succeed it, which we did with that pub run! Now I'd say we're at day 3/4, and we're seeing very slight adjustments on a general scale, but the general theme of cold is nailed on.
(p.s. This graph is really only talking about large-scale trends, not precise tracks of lows or streamers etc.)
In terms of the 'breakdown' of the cold spell, we're back at the start, say day 10. So one run we see the models go for a quick breakdown, and the next they want to extend the spell out longer, we might not get clarity on this when we're down to day 4/5, and by that point we'll be well into the spell, so my advice would be to enjoy what's about to happen whether its just cold, cold and snowy, or snowmageddon! Let's worry about the breakdown as and when!
I fully understand I am way way way over-simplifying the complexity of the models and they all behave differently in different circumstances, but I found that to be a not bad template at keeping emotions in check, especially after a bad run, as it's only up from there!
Hope it's sort of useful, James
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Precip edging closer as per radar, Temp 3.4C and DP -0.1C here, so I'm hoping it falls as snow.
In Reading, 70m ASL
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Looking at the radar it looks to be back-building just a little bit? Maybe I'm kidding myself into seeing what I want to see! Was definitely expecting it to have stopped in Reading but seems to keep going
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Just now, pureasthedriven said:
Lovely - where are you though? Locations don’t show in the phone.
Apologies, Reading
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Unbelievable snow here right now!
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Throwing it down now here and just like that there’s a covering on the ground
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3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Still no snow in Reading by the looks of it! Not sure if it will ever reach us now!
We must be in different parts of Reading as it’s really coming down here! I’m at the university
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We have snow in Reading now, seemed to take ages for it to arrive so hopefully that means it’ll stick around for a while!
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Snow should be starting any minute in Reading, I think I’m in a decent spot today, fingers crossed.
Not a bad sunrise too!
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Sounds and looks like rain in Reading at the moment, I have a lack of lamp posts to look at! Almost certainly rain though, I thought I’d have to be up early for snow but I think I needed to stay up late!
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It looks like the further North-East you are (within the South-East), the better your chances are tomorrow. I'm still searching for my first flakes of winter! Feels like the snow knows where I am as I was in North London but now at university in Reading, just in time for North London to be well placed! Still, on the bright side at least I 'should' see something tomorrow if I'm up early enough of course. Let's hope so.
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Hi everyone, and Merry Christmas!
I was looking at the forecast for the next few days and spotted this symbol for Monday. I previously thought it was fog but it also shows heavy precipitation? (50% chance of snow too in fact!) Any help would be appreciated!
On the subject of Monday's weather there seems like potential for some decent snow? I'll only believe the forecasts about 24 hours out when it comes to snow!
2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
To answer about track length etc... From what I could see from radar as it evolved, it looks like 3 tornadoes formed from the storm, the first hit Rolling Fork, cycled down and then came back as the second, into Amory. The third followed about half an hour behind in a separate circulation and tracked a similar path to the SW of Amory, thankfully it doesn't look like it was too strong as I can't imagine what back to back large tornadoes would do in that quick succession.
The radar grabs from the Amory tornado are insane, but funnily the Rolling Fork tornado looks to have inflicted much worse damage (not that that one looked weak!) Most likely the Rolling Fork tornado will get an EF4 rating, but the EF5 is certainly being talked about (I'm in Norman Oklahoma for reference)