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Everything posted by smichling

  1. The weather station at University of Reading is showing Temp at 6.7C and Dewpoint Temp ay -15.2C !!! Thats a humidity of 19%, easily the lowest humidity reading I've seen. Edit: -15.2 is the lowest dew point measurement in the last 30 years
  2. Well I'm having the heaviest snow of this spell so far in Reading... and its with bright sunshine! Quite strange but beautiful to watch! IMG_3819.MOV
  3. I'm in Reading and haven't been expecting anything until the winds change more Easterly, has this already happened? I can't see the current precipitation affecting me, happy to be proven wrong of course! (in fact I'm hoping for it!)
  4. Snow heavier in Reading now, hasn't taken too long to settle, grass starting to turn a lighter shade of green as it comes down. An hour or so of this could give a small covering
  5. I have a terrible lack of lampposts outside my university room! I might build one for myself outside if it looks like this cold is set to continue for a while!
  6. In the build up to a cold spell or a snowy event, I'll always switch from the model thread to the regional as we get into the 'home stretch', and I think tonight is my cue to do that!
  7. Hi everyone, After all the flipping and flopping of the models, particularly the GFS over last weekend/early this week, I noticed a little pattern with them. I've demonstrated it in an EXTREMELY unscientific graph . The graph itself is quite self-explanatory but its fits in quite well with how this cold spell has come into view. Over the weekend we were approximately 8/9 days away (taking Sunday 7th as the start) and at that time we would see an amazing run, followed by an awful one, I think we had an excellent 12z one day, and after a run like that its almost INEVITABLE to have a downgrade succeed it, which we did with that pub run! Now I'd say we're at day 3/4, and we're seeing very slight adjustments on a general scale, but the general theme of cold is nailed on. (p.s. This graph is really only talking about large-scale trends, not precise tracks of lows or streamers etc.) In terms of the 'breakdown' of the cold spell, we're back at the start, say day 10. So one run we see the models go for a quick breakdown, and the next they want to extend the spell out longer, we might not get clarity on this when we're down to day 4/5, and by that point we'll be well into the spell, so my advice would be to enjoy what's about to happen whether its just cold, cold and snowy, or snowmageddon! Let's worry about the breakdown as and when! I fully understand I am way way way over-simplifying the complexity of the models and they all behave differently in different circumstances, but I found that to be a not bad template at keeping emotions in check, especially after a bad run, as it's only up from there! Hope it's sort of useful, James
  8. Precip edging closer as per radar, Temp 3.4C and DP -0.1C here, so I'm hoping it falls as snow. In Reading, 70m ASL
  9. Looking at the radar it looks to be back-building just a little bit? Maybe I'm kidding myself into seeing what I want to see! Was definitely expecting it to have stopped in Reading but seems to keep going
  10. Throwing it down now here and just like that there’s a covering on the ground IMG_3723.MOV
  11. We must be in different parts of Reading as it’s really coming down here! I’m at the university
  12. We have snow in Reading now, seemed to take ages for it to arrive so hopefully that means it’ll stick around for a while!
  13. Snow should be starting any minute in Reading, I think I’m in a decent spot today, fingers crossed. Not a bad sunrise too!
  14. Sounds and looks like rain in Reading at the moment, I have a lack of lamp posts to look at! Almost certainly rain though, I thought I’d have to be up early for snow but I think I needed to stay up late!
  15. It looks like the further North-East you are (within the South-East), the better your chances are tomorrow. I'm still searching for my first flakes of winter! Feels like the snow knows where I am as I was in North London but now at university in Reading, just in time for North London to be well placed! Still, on the bright side at least I 'should' see something tomorrow if I'm up early enough of course. Let's hope so.
  16. Hi everyone, and Merry Christmas! I was looking at the forecast for the next few days and spotted this symbol for Monday. I previously thought it was fog but it also shows heavy precipitation? (50% chance of snow too in fact!) Any help would be appreciated! On the subject of Monday's weather there seems like potential for some decent snow? I'll only believe the forecasts about 24 hours out when it comes to snow!
  17. Hoping we get some snow here in Reading! I'll be watching the Uni station tonight I think!
  18. In fairness, Netweather ‘feels like’ forecasts was 38C for last Friday in London and we got up to 37.8C at Heathrow. I like to take my own blend of the models (that often slightly undercook raw temps) and the feels like forecast (that often slightly overcooks them). Going by that method we’d be looking at 37-38C I think. Maybe 39C if somewhere stays cloud-free. That’s just my makeshift method!
  19. I do love the weather in the UK. I’ve been very jealous of the Midlands and NW having all the storms the last few days, praying they could form near me in London. Now at last we have some storms as I’m about to start a round of golf! I’ll wear some rubber shoes just in case... Not that I’m being fussy of course
  20. I’ve always been a winter > summer person on these forums but I’m turning! Given that winters are increasingly wet nowadays. And of course storm tracking is about as exciting as it gets
  21. Morning all, Looking forward to this afternoon! Not holding much hope in the London area but both myself and my dad aren’t scared to get in the car and have a chase! The question is how far are we willing to chase... We can hope for a nice surprise down south. Good luck to everyone
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