Hi everyone,
After all the flipping and flopping of the models, particularly the GFS over last weekend/early this week, I noticed a little pattern with them. I've demonstrated it in an EXTREMELY unscientific graph . The graph itself is quite self-explanatory but its fits in quite well with how this cold spell has come into view. Over the weekend we were approximately 8/9 days away (taking Sunday 7th as the start) and at that time we would see an amazing run, followed by an awful one, I think we had an excellent 12z one day, and after a run like that its almost INEVITABLE to have a downgrade succeed it, which we did with that pub run! Now I'd say we're at day 3/4, and we're seeing very slight adjustments on a general scale, but the general theme of cold is nailed on.
(p.s. This graph is really only talking about large-scale trends, not precise tracks of lows or streamers etc.)
In terms of the 'breakdown' of the cold spell, we're back at the start, say day 10. So one run we see the models go for a quick breakdown, and the next they want to extend the spell out longer, we might not get clarity on this when we're down to day 4/5, and by that point we'll be well into the spell, so my advice would be to enjoy what's about to happen whether its just cold, cold and snowy, or snowmageddon! Let's worry about the breakdown as and when!
I fully understand I am way way way over-simplifying the complexity of the models and they all behave differently in different circumstances, but I found that to be a not bad template at keeping emotions in check, especially after a bad run, as it's only up from there!
Hope it's sort of useful, James