seajamiet

Still going here in Gloucester. Looking like around 3-4cms at the moment but it's been pretty heavy for the last 30 minutes.

Well for a long time today it looked like us in Gloucester would be one of those areas to miss out but it's absolutely kicked off in the last hour. Lots of rain now and seen a flash or two but honestly it's not very thundery - just lots of well needed rainfall (hopefully not too much - we have memories of that...) Much fresher feeling too with temps dropping 3-4c

Was literally about to say the same thing. I'm in Gloucester so I'm guessing we got either the same thing or similar. Nice surprise.

Hi, I'm new to this thread, what does sferics mean?

What's this data based on / source out of interest?

Travelling back to Glos by train this evening from Surrey. Hoping the trees hold up just long enough!

We are none the wiser which way this is going. I have to say I do think the GFS output is the most sensible - but we need to see some consensus across the major models now whichever direction that will be. ECM being an outlier could prove to be important.

I don't think people need to throw in the towel just yet. There's clearly still different solutions on offer. Need to wait for more cross model agreement I'd say and I just don't think we have that yet.

Quiet so far in Gloucester , temps at 4c with Dew Point at 2.8c. Really not expecting anything so if I wake up to a thin covering I'll be pleasantly surprised. Temps not quite right as things stand.

At the point they go warmer you are talking deep FI. Are you chasing a mild chart at 384 hours?

I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall. For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before? Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

I once discussed with a work colleague how I was all into weather and the raw models and I've been learning on the ins and outs and then proceeded to proclaim it was going to be a cold winter with snow on the way. Learned the hard way not to believe what you see too soon.

Been following the models for around 4-5 years but rarely post - everything I've seen and been reading is mostly positive. Don't remember often seeing these outputs in December if at all, pretty sure in the last few winters we've been staring at a bit of a zonal period in the run up to Christmas. Nice to see SSW possibilities showing too which'll keep the interest going no doubt. Looking forward to the next few weeks

You have to become fluent in "isobar", then it all makes sense :) I'm actually a bit of a fan

#MyFirstPost .. Very happy to wake up this morning living in Gloucester to hear the snow line has moved south somewhat. Gonna be a night of lamppost watching I think