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Snowjokes92

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    Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences
    Winter

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  1. These charts are stonking even for mid december! Even early december you dont often get classic scandi highs like are been shown on the output. Makes you wonder what the rest of winter could hold with good teleconnection signals for coldies and low solar activity. Just to add my birthday is 15th december so i could be in with a higher chance of snow than usual by the way things are going. Its doesnt often snow on my birthday either.
  2. Im presuming if blocking prevails into early december and we get a ssw in mid december, that can possibly mean even more extreme patterns emerging., especially if blocking is still occuring I'm sensing a lot high latitude blocking possible early december, what effects on the northern hempishere would we expect if we added an ssw into the mix, with the blocking already established in some shape or form?
  3. Wow look at that the main part of the vortex all over the siberia area and the yellows building up over scandinavia and towards greenland. A good start for coldies
  4. I agree about the scandi ridge as brilliant as it is, but definetly looking like it will fall for now. But like i said previously, teleconnections and back ground signals and developing el nino, are defonetly going to change from what we have had the last few months. Which is why i said, i think we will be more prone to more unsettled and variable weather in between at the very least.
  5. The ecm shows a breakdown to cooler weather mid week and hints of a pressure rise at latter end of the run. Not a bad run really. I think people are struggling to come to terms with potential unsettled and cool blips after the last few extroadinary months. But that pattern from june and july has shifted and done with and that be the same with teleconnections. Im not saying this doesnt imply settled and hot spells for the rest of the month. Im just saying the patterns have shifted from the extremely dry nature that we saw in may, june and most of july, to something more normal if you can put it like that. The teleconnections are shifting different mixes and terriotries, which would take away the abundance of constant weeks of dry and warm weather, to a pattern more prone to unsettled blips making incursions from time to time. I think other posts like @Tamara and @Singularity may know what im getting at. Thats how im understanding it at the minute. My knowledge on background signals etc isnt quite vast
  6. Its very windy in kirkless like constant gusts out of no where whats happening lol
  7. To me its not about how long ago it feels. Its how relentlessly cold and snow it was, which felt like it was going on forever. Then it felt like a sudden switch to hot and very dry. I cant remember any major wet periods. The snow has overrrided the rain this year and with the dry summer, it just doesnt feel like we have had any proper rain for so long
  8. P10 gfs 12z smashes the record day after day after day. Surely 40c barrier will be smashed if that came off constant dry, hot southerly air flow and upper air temps high teens for days. Its hottest run ive ever seen in longivity too
  9. Just flicked through some of the 12z gefs, some of them are bringing the heat back by monday/tuesday and some exceptional heat on a few of them. Honestly quite exceptional then record heat most likely
  10. Is there a still a chance we could see the high uppers a bit more further west just a bit touch and go for friday i feel. Hope im wrong.
  11. Is it me or does the ukmo 144hr chart look out of kilter to the other models and previous ukmo runs. Just looks too close to comfort maybe im wrong though
  12. I think the systems to the west are been still overplayed considering the extreme nature of the high to the east. The models dont often deal with such a set up and think the low out to the northwest will diminish more in the coming days. Look how last week unfolded, certainly nothing how it was been modelled days before the event. Baby steps in the coming days to push things more west i think..
  13. Not saying its going to come off, but some of those rogue gfs runs at the end thay we have seen gives us the potential to break the record a few times over. Incredible, interesting times
  14. Snowjokes92

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    And even at that its an underestimarion. I nearly fainted. The record just about smashed, adding how the gfs undercooks the highs. But if that 40c cant be out of question
  15. Snowjokes92

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Still havent forgot 2 weeks ago when gfs wanted to bring a low up from the sw and bringing a fair amount of rain and a breakdown. Ecm and ukmo stayed firm and gfs jumped on board later. Not saying the gfs runs have been terrible today, but the latest one gos off on one next week, but to be honest im not too concerned.
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