ThamesStreamer
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What with the Americans and Canadians getting an Arctic blast, firing up the jet stream and breaking down our cold set up too, it's a wonder that the UK weather community isn't xenophobic. -
Exactly. Still suspect it might just miss us, but it's not set in stone. A few variables will surely come into play on the system's journey? It could deepen a little. It could wrap-around/pivot slightly. A slackening of the Northerlies could allow it a bit further North, although too far and it's rain in the South. Not one to completely write off yet, and there might need to be some nowcasting mixed in as it comes onto the radar.
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Surely no point paying too much attention beyond the middle of next week at the moment? Background signals are all there for severely reduced westerly momentum, and for continued shots at HLB. Model ensembles beyond middle of next week seemingly struggling with said signals, on top of continued TPV havoc. All seems more volatile than usual. See how middle of next week shapes up.
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Looks like its inching NE to me. I think pivot point will probably be somewhere over mid or north Kent before it comes round over Essex and N/NE London. We'll see though.
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Frustrating. Still a few days away from getting anywhere approaching consensus on this. From an IMBY perspective, it could be the best way to get snow in the south and SE, super high reward.....but my word, is it ever a path strewn with risk.
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This is a great spot, and bodes well.
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Christ, look at the switch in the GEFS from the 00z (left) to the 06z (right). Must be something afoot to see such a pronounced movement in the ensembles from a crazy spread to a more confident outlook?
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If that is the case then do you think heavier stuff will just be delayed for some of us? I’m in Southend, only a moderate fall of snow pellets at the moment really. Hoping that into the evening it might get heavier, more persistent and bigger flakes.
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The build to the East of the system was exactly what we needed to bring us back into play. Now watch the Channel and Strait of Dover go off like a bomb and pep it up....
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We officially have a Thames Streamer. Essex Weather Centre refers to North Sea off Essex coast and Thames Estuary as having lit up and being snow machines. If winds stay favourable as expected this could cause rush hour disruption. MetO need to extend warning into London.
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Standing at Chalkwell station in Southend looking E and SE and can see there’s lots about but had more of a Northerly component so far so I’m watching the clouds pass me to my SE and head to Kent. Can actually see the snow falling on the other side of the Estuary from here. Hoping the wind direction shifts ASAP to send the train our way again and give us a pasting.
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Tell it to stay there mate. I’m just coming through Upminster, not far away now ?
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Aw man so gutted, still at work in the City. Won't be getting off at Chalkwell til about 10, I'm missing it!
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I hope this continues through the evening. Still at work in London but should be making my way home on the train from Fenchurch Street to Chalkwell in about an hour.
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Holy Santa Claus sh*t I can’t believe how quickly and intensely these are popping up on the radar. I mean I had a feeling MetO and others were being conservative but these are starting to look pretty damn organised!
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I’m Southend and staying here as we’re likely to be more in-line with SE weather due to influence of the Thames Estuary.
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
ThamesStreamer replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed. Important thing to remember is the snow doesn’t exist yet. Those modelling supercomputers might be good, but you can’t expect the models not to struggle with precipitation which doesn’t exist yet. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
ThamesStreamer replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We’ve known that Sunday night into Monday morning was the arrival time for a good 4 or 5 days now. -
Could the front be pepped-up by the “flurries” moving in off the North Sea?
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Really came down here in Southend for about 20 mins, real heavy snow that settled very quickly. Makes you wonder what could have been if we’d had something more organised and persistent!
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That’ll be a nowcasting situation won’t it? Not easy to predict, even for high res computer models.
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Boring old dusting in Southend. Nowhere near as much as I wanted. I’m praying that mid-month onwards doesn’t turn out to be the winter oracle that many are complaining, rather than the damp squib that every winter/winter event has been for me in the last 4 years.
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That looks beautiful, hoping for a snowy 7am walk to Leigh station!
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Thaaaaaaat’s what I want to see! In these ENE or even NE setups off the N Sea I always find snow amounts are underplayed. We’ll see.
