Bricriu
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All this talk about climate change, some of us might be happy if it led to a shutdown or a real slowing down of the North Atlantic Drift in our lifetime, then we would be getting something like the winters they have in Canada. Although some would miss the drama of model output in that scenario.
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The MJO in a less favourable phase than it was back in 2018 and the absence of a major SSW might be the difference. When we are relying on a stretched or displaced vortex there is always a risk that elements of the tpv move back to the wrong place in terms of getting cold in.
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It's funny in December when we wanted it more active in phase 7 it failed to oblige. Now that it might be stronger in phase 4 than anticipated it could be a hindrance to maintaining blocking. Can we ever catch a break.
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The text forecast on their website was indicating milder weather for this weekend with rain. That's what I was referring to
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It's rare a cold spell wouldn't have a relaxation period. I wouldn't be concerned about that really. Although you being a mild lover might hope for it:)
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True. A displacement or stretched vorted is rarely good for cold over us, there will nearly always be too much residual energy left in the wrong place that will scupper a cold spell.
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I can remember several occasions where we went mild but it stayed cold in the UK with heavy snow there while we had rain. Although I see what you are saying in a robust zonal set up the UK would eventually go mild too.
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Unless the ECM op is leading the way and they all flip. For what it's worth our Met Service has milder weather with rain for us after the weekend. Of course that doesn't mean the UK will be mild too.
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High risk/ high reward stuff. It looks good for Northern and Eastern areas of England.
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Fantastic video. Thanks a lot for sharing it
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Is the easterly phase of the QBO aiding us this year somewhat.? Would these warmings that are falling short of a major ssw not be enough if it was in a westerly phase?
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I am burnt out. Haha. I can't take anymore twists and turns. Is it true that less data goes into to this GFS run?
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It will probably be showing blocking at t240:)
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Not really. A bad trend has set in. First we had model wobbles showing heights waning from Greenland, now we have mean charts coming around to that scenario. We can expect to see a big change in the ec46 tomorrow as a result of this. This is harder to take than if we had than less than stellar background conditions to begin with.
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What are the thoughts on Judah Cohens latest update?
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Yes, as Nick S said you can have great ingredients and still end up with a poor meal. While the nh profile is synoptically great most people won't care if we end up with South westerlies by default or cold air mixing out due to the colder air not pushing far enough south. As you say it would be a real gut punch if that's where we end up.
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It all seems a bit too messy, we could end up with cold rain instead of snow for many. This ECM run feels like a gut punch to the stomach. We can only hope its not well supported. Typical GFS to not be performing particularly well in the verification stakes, but could ending up being right with its signal for heights to wane in Greenland.
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As long as the scatter doesn't grow into a consensus for a less cold/ non snowy option. We could get a snowy outcome without a Greenland Block as the UKMO is indicating.
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The GFS run might tally with our own Met Service(Met Eireann) and what the UKMO long range are thinking. They both seem to be suggesting a mid latitude block rather than a high right into Greenland. So it wouldn't be a major shock to me if the GFS has it right this time. We just have to hope if it does that it still leads to a snowy outcome in week 2
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It doesn't sound like a Greenland high. Some people will be disappointed by that as it lessens the likelihood of deep cold, but if a mid latitude block is far enough away to deliver a decent northerly, I don't mind so much from an imby perspective. I'd love severe cold, but it's snow I am ultimately after. Hopefully others could get in on the action in time too.
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There is a lot of risk to that. It's never a good sign to see Greenland heights wane if you want to prolong a cold spell in my opinion. I hope i am wrong and that this run does not have much support.
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The KMA model has also shown how it could go west based. I don't think it's fair that posters are being accused of being overly negative when they are just commenting on op runs that are fraught with risk. I want snow just as much as the next person, and admittedly we have a good chance of getting some, but things could easily go awry.
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There were a couple of op runs that showed the high going perilously close to Canada. It wasn't a west based nao set up but it was a bit close for comfort. You can see on the KMA model posted earlier how things could go wrong. We all remember that ECM chart from years back of how things can go wrong all of a sudden. We are in the game no doubt, but it could still go pear shaped.
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It's as someone said you can have great ingredients and still end up with a crap meal. I would take it being synoptically less than great if we got snow rather the other way around. In saying that the ECM if it had a day 11 chart could be great. We need to see this counting down now though rather than getting delayed/ pushed back.
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That ECM run is a bit disappointing, but hopefully the rain showers would be turning to snow by day 11. What I don't want to see is more delays to snowy cold arriving. That we are not constantly chasing eye candy day 10 charts. I still have a nagging feel the high won't stay stationary in Greenland for long and that we could end up with a South Westerly by default due to the high going too close to Canada in the end. That would be a real kick in teeth after all the waiting around if that were to happen.
