Bricriu
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Everything posted by Bricriu
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Yes back to mentioning slightly milder weather for a time. It looks like areas further north would stay cold throughout. As long as we don't see a further change in wording to milder weather rather than an interlude of milder weather, then I am happy enough with that update
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It seems to me the latest GFS run echoes the comments of Amy Butler about events in the strat. Let's hope it's not a rogue run and we can build on it. Would you be expecting a quick tropospheric response from that given the strat is in a weak state already? Also is there any danger it could flip the pattern to a negative outcome for us. I am thinking not given the UKMO long range, but who knows?
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What about the ukmo fax chart. That's has us back in the game big time if it's right
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Could be polar low territory with that!
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An odd chart, not that these are reliable. I mean odd that you get a covering but so does the North West. Usually one of us would miss out.
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I agree with this. I'd much prefer it be bone dry than risk a slushfest. As it is features could pop up to surprise some of us, if not then at least we hang on to the cold
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Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel given the nh profile?
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Where did this GFS run come from. Could this be the model getting a handle on all the recent warmings in the strat?
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So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.
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If I was living in the north of England I'd overall be happy with the output. You have a greater chance of a snow event or it stays cold and dry throughout. Places further south could well just have snow to rain. I would prefer everything corrected further south in that scenario and we just stayed as things are now, cold and dry
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Those ec46 seem to change so often, so I wouldn't get hung up on them showing a less favourable outcome in fi. As long as the UKMO stick to their latest update, I think we will have further opportunities for snow during the month of February
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Yes, but then you potentially miss out on an epic snowfall, but from an imby perspective I'd take missing out on it, if we got a decent northerly instead with plenty of snow showers.
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So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while. Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February the Altantic won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd's suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Bricriu replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Fantastic outlook. Cold in the main, with any milder periods being brief. And the usually conservative text mentions that disruptive snow is possible too. Some places will surely have a decent snow event or two over the next couple of weeks, but of course it could be heartbreak for others at times, but hopefully we will all see snow at some stage before winters out. -
I wouldn't panic yet, unless we see the ECM move towards the GFS this evening. If the ECM doesn't, I think the GFS will begin backtracking by the pub run or tomorrow morning.
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The presenter said he was previously the chief forecaster but is now in a different role within the UKMO - the head of situational awareness
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If ever there was a trolling chart...well this is it!
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Last night was a great one. I think it's all trending towards what the UKMO texted forecast has indicated as battle ground conditions. From an imby perspective that rarely works out for my location, but for others, especially those further north and east in the UK, it could well work out nicely for them!
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I think this run is maybe a bit more realistic than the ECM output. It's bad news if you are relying on an Arctic high to force the cold south.
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A poor run the way this is going, no snow, cold, but for how long?
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Bricriu replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
He might be talking about areas further south. A northerly isn't great for them. It initially looks good for us further north, but the battleground situation could mean we are wet rather than white. Although you are even further north than me so snow might be more likely for you in a battleground situation -
Milder could be a battleground scenario if the deep cold is entrenched before any Atlantic attack. Places further north and east would be favoured in that scenario, we'd probably be wet rather than white though.
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A prolonged cold spell? Does anyone know how this model verifies compares to the big three in the verification stakes? I would really love if the answer is it's neck and neck with them:)
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Well hopefully at that range it can be treated as cannon fodder.
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So are you saying basically that the absence of a proper split might be what leads to wedges rather than a robust Greenland high. ? I would love a long lasting freeze courtesy of such a high, but if a high risk high reward situation leads to a couple of days of snow I'd be happy with that. At some point it's about getting the snow in
