Bricriu

It's far more serious than that(joking). That warm sector is really irritating, when we are supposed to be in the colder air and precipitation is about we'll get rain, then when the colder air does get back in it looks fairly dry overall. Perhaps some features will pop up, it would be a real kick in the teeth if we limp back to milder weather at the weekend

Something else will no doubt come along to weaken the signal for robust blocking. The lesson from this chase is that Greenland heights if they do occur more often than not tend to wane quicker than anticipated. I don't know if that's the models picking up a signal and over doing it or what, no doubt someone will have an explanation. We had the UKMO up to a couple of days ago saying milder interludes only for the south to milder conditions gradually taking over next weekend is a bit disappointing. There is no such thing as locked in cold, we are lucky if we get 4- 5 days of cold. I am just hopeful as many people as possible can get some snow next week. It will be a gut punch if we go zonal without a decent snowfall somewhere

It's disappointing in one way that much of February would potentially be eaten up with predominantly dry weather, but at the same time it's preferable to the GFS horror show which would could lead to at least 7 - 10 days of zonal weather if not more. One further thing I will say is even with a grim nh profile things can change for the better in the space of a few days- you only have to look at the charts prior to some noteworthy cold spell as evidence of that .

The bullish tone of the UKMO text forecast would give you a bit of confidence that the UKMO maybe right. I guess we will find out soon enough. I really hope the GFS is being its default self with the return of raging zonality by the weekend. I have had more than enough for rain over the last three months.

I pray it does. Was it back in 2013 this kept happening on the models during a cold spell? I am nearly sure it was either 2013 or 2012.

So maybe nothing will be resolved till Sunday evening as regards next week?

I agree about snow chances, features could pop up even if the synoptics don't seem great. I remember getting ninja snow over the years when model output suggested it would be dry- the warm seas could aid us in this scenario next week.

Well I hope she is right, but the form horse looks a return to milder weather. What we don't want is a tepid return to milder weather, either let's at least have a massive snow dump from a frontal event or a good unstable northerly airflow, but I am not confident of either happening now. If this is the case then it's a big anticlimax after what seems like one of the longest chases ever

Well that is a big ask, despite the suggestion from some that cold may hang on past next weekend it doesn't seem likely now whether we have a frontal event or not, but I agree it could lead to a big dump of snow more widely for a lot of people who will likely be dry otherwise.

Is there in house model- Glosea- not going for a blocked February? If the GFS is right about the strat February could be interesting too. Unless it flipped the whole pattern to something negative. Anyway too far out to really worry about. We hopefully will have a 4 - 5 day snowy spell next week.

The UKMO 168 chart could be the gift that keeps on giving.

Just to be clear, are you saying that if QBO was in a westerly phase the Troposphere impacting the strat the way it is would not be able to happen- that we would not see these splits propagating upwards?

Potentially warms up or are you of the view it's almost a foregone conclusion that it will warm up everywhere?

We will see what happens for the final week of January. I hope it remains cold and we all get a dump of snow at some point.

I hope so too. I would like some snow of course, but I would be happy if we could hang on to the cold and dry weather at the very least. We just said goodbye to the puddles, so i don't want to see them back for a good while.

I am sure someone will mention ensembles showing otherwise and that there is no trend, but that's two GFS runs, along with the ECM and EC46 showing a more westerly influence for the final week of January. Also John Holmes indicated this might happen too. On a more positive note any westerly influence will hopefully be brief. I don't think I could take another lengthy Zonal period.

Also the GFS op has been against its ensembles previously and still turned out to be right. So the post is somewhat wide of the mark, even if most of the time the ensembles do lead the way. The GFS op if it does turn out to be right about next week will have trumped the other models. I certainly hope it's wrong, but this episode has shown you write it off at your peril.

But it isn't just the GFS. The ECM run is poor too. Sometimes the op can lead the way. Believe me I really hope you are right by the way, but if it can go wrong for us it usually does despite how fantastic background drivers can be. By the way I appreciate all the time you put in explaining these drivers to us.

With respect it's not just one run, it's two models showing a less than desirable outcome with a return of a westerly influence. Granted the GFS might lead to a dumping for some. I now need to take this opportunity to apologise to this forum. I committed the cardinal sin by telling a neighbour to get ready for the snow. I have my running shoes on....

A worrying trend. The ECM has backed the GFS in sending the low a bit too far north and then we end up back to a westerly pattern. What's the betting they have arrived at a consensus now. If this is the case you'll likely see a change in the UKMO text forecast

Unless it pushes all back south on later frames.

Yes, and the danger is the GFS could be right again in the face of opposition from other models, but some places will do very well in terms of snow fall if that happens, so people in these regions might not care too much about longetivity if they have a significant snowfall.

How can the GFS change so much from one run to the next. This morning it looked good for extending the cold but now it looks like it may not last at all. I appreciate some could get a dumping before all that happens

So it would seem the GFS has led the way on this as lrd said. You are right about the ensembles longer term,if the op runs remain consistent it could be the ensembles change. I know it's usually the other way around though.

It looks like a lot of ensembles are trending the wrong way in fi contrary to the op runs. It's a long way out anyway to worry about it. Also there is a chance they could change to extending the cold. As long as the UKMO update remains bullish about the long range I am happy enough.