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Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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I think the second half of March will be quite cold due to the SSW- but probably too late in the day to bring wintry nirvana. The lament of if only this was a month ago might be expressed.
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The background drivers didn't fail, they are just a reminder that they do not guarantee cold for us. Something has overriden them and the signal for a back loaded winter. No doubt next winter we will have a strong pv over Greenland. Well at least in that scenario we won't have our hopes raised by any UKMO long range forecasts
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johncamthe story of the winter really. Any cold that does try to make it gets cut off, but for the spoiler Iberian High this could have been a winter to remember . Well and truly sick of it now. I was hoping we'd get a noticeable late February cold spell to rescue this winter but it doesnt seem likely now
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Met4Cast 61 per cent is still high. It could be just inter run variance. In any case if it doesn't happen it might be just as well if we see a repeat of what happened with the last ssw, albeit for different reasons this time. I mean the last thing we want is an emerging cold spell through late February to be upended by a ssw.
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A decent covering of snow!
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bluearmy so a repeat of what happened with the last SSW is likely. Blooming fantastic. The story of this winter if it pans out like that.
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The ECM will probably move towards the GFS as the UKMO has. I wouldn't trust the UKMO for the weekend after this climbdown. It's annoying how the worst scenario nearly always seem to verify. Well nothing has verified yet, but the form horse looks like a snow to rain event at best. That doesn't really interest me.
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January Snowstorm This event is not looking great for us 24 hours of rain and sleet with snow confined to high ground. I am focusing on after mid month now. If we get a proper cold spell to see out winter it will have been worth the endless roller coaster, but if it's another letdown it will go down as one of the most disappointing winters in recent times given the background drivers looked very positive for a notable cold spell at some point.
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If the GFS doesn't backtrack by this evening I think we are going to end up in a half-way house solution which means cold rain for most on lower ground . As regards later on this month, what if we see a repeat of what happened in January with a ssw scuppering a cold spell. Although knowing our luck a proper freeze will finally take hold in March.
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A cold March, perhaps? Let's hope we don't get a repeat of what happened in January anyway.
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Thanks Paul. It seems to have solved the issue.
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Hi Paul, I am still having the same issue when I view the forum in portrait mode.
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I am having the same problem- posts jumbled on top of each other. I will try the landscape option
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The cold pushed back again to late February now. The mild is hardly ever pushed back!
The UKMO will still be talking about cold from North East by the Summer at this rate. Roger J Smith did say February, from data he analysed , would be mostly mild. It now appears to be turning out that way - well at least for the first half of it to be offensively mild for the time of year.
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2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
In tune with Exeter's thoughts as well.
So have they dropped the idea of Easterly winds now? They had that as the direction of travel for days.
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If Arome is correct then some inland parts of Ireland are very close to red territory. Unless we see downgrades in the morning, which is possible, I think gusts of between 70- 80 mph are possible for places inland that are not used to having such gusts. Even with lesser gusts, if the windy period is prolonged there could be a lot of damage for some areas.
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36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
If we’re getting an arctic ridge involved again then we can expect fi continuity to drop off significantly …… yeah I know
Oh jeez I hope we are not relying on Arctic ridge to help us out. When has that ever happened. I am sure someone has an example, but I can't remember many times that it has
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It looks likes the North West Coast of Ireland and the west coast of Scotland will bear the brunt of it, but damaging winds nearly everywhere due to the huge windfield
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The overall pattern has good agreement after the weekends wet and windy weather .
So the upstream troughing will dig south and there will be several attempts to cut shortwave energy se to the east or ne.
Pressure rises to the ne but the question is can that troughing sharpen up enough and will we see a westwards correction.
We certainly need the MJO to move out of phase 5 and into 6 as quickly as possible and preferably into 7 but the models seem less interested in the latter happening . There’s also a question mark over the amplitude of the signal.
I hope the MJO isn't going to cod us again. It's unlikely the Scandi High will come off in that case.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
I presume there will be a lag time with this. If not we can forget about an Easterly
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Am I the the only one still hoping for snow? I don't want to wait another nine or 10 months for snow. I hope the proper reversal of the Zonal Winds this time will lead to the mother of all northerly (-14 -16 uppers over Scotland and Northern Ireland and -10 -12 everywhere else) during the final third of March. I know it's a pipe dream!