Midlander

As we now enter Spring, I just wanted to recap on 'Winter 23/24' Worst winter for snow and cold since 2013/14. It was not a snowless winter, thanks to the early December cold spell, which gave settling snow, but given the expectation from many that this would be the best winter since 2012/13, it really was shockingly bad. At least I've learnt that the Met Office long range written forecasts can be just as accurate as the CFS Also think the ECMWF has been disappointing this season with the GFS being surprisingly decent

AltonMatthew Nice, what’s your elevation?

Looks like the MO have downgraded the longer-range forecasts A winter with many expectations and high hopes but very little to show for it...

I won't throw in the towel (just yet) for this winter season until the Met Office change their long-range forecasts. If they do, it would be all the more disappointing given the seasonal model forecasts and the apparent optimism (especially earlier on in the winter) of usually conservative members in the MAD thread about favourable background signals.

andy_leics22 Yeah, GFS ends the day with 18Z being the furthest north of all of today's GFS runs, whilst the ICON 18Z is the furthest south it has been all day.

Still hoping for some further southerly shunts, but you can see the ECMWF 12Z was further south than the 00Z

UKMO 12Z slightly more appealing than the 06Z

In marginal situations like this, it is quite nice to have a look at the HD zoom AROME, ARPEGE. Can clearly spot the higher elevation areas

GokouD Exactly, can't be too picky when it comes to snowfall!

MattStoke Every miles further south helps! Can see the reason for the snow increase with the 850s 1AM 1PM

AltonMatthew Yes, although I vaguely remember that

Can see the difference more starkly at 1PM Thursday

ARPEGE Ensembles trickling out now. Looks as though the colder 850's average are further south, prior to the precip

In ARPEGE we trust!

Beggars can't be choosers, especially in this modern climate era. I'll take a few hours of heavy, picturesque snow, even if it does eventually all wash away