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    Heavy snow & long hot summers

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  1. It's been a difficult two weeks but happy to hear of some calmer warmer weather on the horizon. Thanks all.
  2. 8 months of Autumn to come as the winter will likely be a mild, windy event too.
  3. It's a narrow scatter gun and is an excellent model. Just a few percent less accurate on average than the ECM & UKMO which aren't updated as regularly. I would agree with you in that your summer is viewed from your backyard with little appreciation of the coastal wind forces. My view is across hundreds of miles of coastline and believe me it's been a woeful summer and the models aren't lending themselves to change. Some days the gusts have been approaching force 7!
  4. Disappointing, but then a warm settled period was always against us (current trends). We are all entitled to our opinions and I prefer GFS with many years of experience in interpreting the outputs. Seen all other models fail on important times of the year only to switch, quite dramatically. Sometimes the scatter gun approach is best when averaged. I've not witnessed more than two days of consistent calm seas this summer since May. I couldn't care about heat, or records being broken, I'm here to plan days around the coast and right now it looks like another wind fest heading into Augu
  5. I've been waiting for a long period of calm weather too! The trend is against us but fingers crossed.
  6. In all my years I've not experienced a summer with such strong winds on the coasts - I know as I'm a sea kayaker so speaking from experience. The GFS model shows plenty of rain and more strong winds after the brief 2 day settled spell - therefore a continuation of the overal poor wet and windy conditions, be it a tad warmer. GFS is very poor if you are after a long settled calm spell for coastal regions, and I rate the model very highly when taken each run as an average over the days. No knee jerk reaction, just basic evidence.
  7. GFS is king, always first to pick up spoilers. The trend continues with settled spells followed by atlantic dross. It's been an awful summer given all the wind and rain in my opinion - sums up 2020 perfectly.
  8. What a woeful ten days being forecast with nearly all coastal areas approaching gale force winds for the foreseeable! Utterly disappointing for mid summer.
  9. Away from the hills I wouldn't bet against a snow flake not being seen this winter for the majority of the UK. I suspect the atlantic will be too powerful and continue to push all cold weather aside.
  10. Wow that’ll be approaching 20C in favoured spots! ? Followed by cooler westerlies than possibly a repeat I would imagine? Cant see the high moving north, and squeezing the cold in from the East myself. I know many here want that to happen but it’s unlikely. The WAA has been upon us all winter.
  11. Could well reach that! Last day before low res kicks in suggests some very mild air. New records? The GFS runs look very plausible and won’t be far off imo. The hunt for cold is in March, which is a shame. But my guess is a cool (at times) HP with a few frosts leading to an average Spring kind of setup.
  12. The models are showing some very mild weather forthcoming. 15C here (in the sun) and it feels lovely in the warm sunshine!
  13. Not this time Sleety. Likely a mild end to winter then onto a normal setup for spring (no cold). Possibility of a few frosts in March with a HP setup as the last of the cold is shunted east (again). I see it very clearly. My forecasts improve with age you know.
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