Jason Edwards

A return to Westerlies simply isnt true he said....on the cusp of a notable cold spell he said.... When will that be then ? Some time in the late 2020's ?

Certainly, ill send it in the post

You are right...I said there would be a few days of cold....where in fact there isn't going to be even one

Ensembles suggest a few cold days followed by westerlies. Amazes me how people on here just never learn

06Z run says otherwise and its backed up by being someone who has been a weather model analyst since 2008

Writings been on the wall for a few days on this, ECM puts that writing in paint. Low Pressure will simply pass over the UK as it always does in these situations, it will only be cold enough to snow in a line from Cumbria northwards in my opinion. Every year this happens, as soon as you see cold modelling being pushed back on the charts its obvious which way it will go. One only needs to see the Ensembles anywhere south of the Midlands to see this cold snap around 27-29 will be confined to Midlands North and a quick (but temporary) return to Westerlies follows. Im not holding much hope for seeing a cold and snowy winter in the UK at all this Winter, those times have gone just isnt going to happen...ever.

I couldn't agree any more ....im an avid runner (out 6 days a week) and this winter has been utterly shocking here in brighton. Cold wet and windy (again). Seems that theres been only a handfull of sunshine days since autumn and the wind is just endless. Roll on summer. Tbh i used to enjoy winters but im fast thinking i might become a summer fan instead. Winters in the UK stink

Remember the old saying...get the cold in first...well... No point in getting bogged down into details this far out, there's always likely to be disturbances within the flow and it's great to see the whole of Europe in the freezer. I still think that the door to an Easterly flow is being opened slowly but surely as we head through December and into January when seeing charts like what we are seeing, the constant flip flopping from one day to another shows that things aren't behaving in the normal manner and that has to be a good thing as the normal manner usually involves HP over Azores and lows running over the top through the UK. Even when this does show up on the models as per + 210 on tonights GFS it doesn't seem to take long for the cold to find a way back...or the next days runs drop the return to westerly idea completely. Enjoy the cold at the back end of next week and let's see where it goes from there

I can smell an Easterly coming ......Atlantic dead in the water ...defaintely a chart loaded with potential from here on out.. prolonged cold spell looming perhaps

I'm liking how the UKMO and the Control run of the 12Z GFS are very similar, especially given how the 12z GFS control run evolves. UKMO + 144 GFS Control + 144 The Control then goes on to evolve into a fairly slack Easterly, but an easterly none the less, fantastic charts, will be looking at tonight's ECM with interest