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Tracy Flick

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  1. ... and the A68 (yes, an 'A' road) near Tow Law http://www.durham.gov.uk/article/4530/Road-weather-station-camera-details?action=detail&station=12
  2. Pretty nasty conditions up near Forest-in-Teesdale School: Definitely need a 4x4 to get to school today(!)
  3. As seen as you seem interested, I'll just add the following too I may: As well as the accuracy limits from the coding approximations, there is also a fundamental limit introduced because the system is essentially chaotic: starting from 2 data points (or 2 ensemble members) that differ only by a tiny amount, the differences between the 2 will stay small for a short while, then suddenly diverge. Now even if there were NO approximations in the coding, this sudden divergence of the ensemble members can still occur. It will be at a somewhat different time and with a somewhat different
  4. NWP is traditionally purely Newtonian physics (no historical data use), but some companies are trying Artificial Intelligence ('Neural Networks', the self-learning way). How I see these 2 approaches: Using pure Newtonian physics (which is the traditional MetO way): In the case of fluid dynamics, the balance of forces and the conservation of momentum, energy and mass are expressed through Navier-Stokes partial differential equations (mass, energy and momentum are conserved in everything, even car crashes... read about Newton's Laws for more). But these NS equations are difficult to
  5. The GEM goes for The Scream option. Even Scotland would struggle to stay snowy with this one.
  6. For those who want the snow to survive for the one weekend (which surely isn't asking too much, is it?) the GFS 18z is not a concern. What is a concern is the UKMO and now the latest shift in the ECM run set. I don't know why they have to run the GFS 4 times a day to 384h: maybe it's an attempt to buy love and attention by compensating for the lack of quality with excess quantity. What's a pro forecaster meant to do, publish a new in-depth analysis every 6 hours? It's an overload of information that muddies the waters rather than making them clearer. Anyway FWIW, the JMA + GEM
  7. I wouldn't be surprised if a few rural locations in the southern half of the UK get scenes like this at some point in the next 6-12 days, as the lows try to push in from the south-west.
  8. Worth noting that morning and evening rush hours are in daylight in March, which should help. Personally I hated 2010 much more than 2013 because I was on a Pennine road every day at 6 am in the dark. Scary as hell, I couldn't see the front of my car let alone the nearest farmhouse.
  9. If by 'Next week' she means 'day 0 to day 7' it's probably just about a reasonable assessment. (I didn't hear or watch it though.)
  10. This is good agreement now between GEFS mean and ECM mean: Slack, dry easterly seems to be being converged upon for the 6-10 day range.
  11. The ECM mean evolution: 3 days ago it predicts blocking heaven for next Friday: This prediction then adjusts to become blocking purgatory as geo heights lower near Greenland: But the latest run has the block to the East fighting back: So the ECM hasn't quite returned to what it was showing 3 days ago, because of differences around S Greenland. But the block to the east is nonetheless fighting westward. A JMA mean for the same day and a few days later shows the blocking starting to win to the north as battleground/undercut scenarios develop: EC
  12. The evolution of the GEFS 12z mean from the last 4 days for 1300h, 23rd Feb: And the EC means from 13th and 14th, for 23rd Feb: The Atlantic's significance is increasing with each run. Tonight's EC mean will be interesting.
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