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ZK099

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  1. For what it's worth, last week's cold spell wasn't really modelled to deliver much snow and up until the last minute, uppers looked mediocre. However, in Newcastle in my area at 130m, I had the most snow showers I've seen in years thanks to a late trough in the North Sea. Moral being, even if certain areas aren't modelled to be hit with snow, surprises always pop up, especially in such an unstable flow. So I'd say the vast majority of the UK has a good chance of wintry precipitation from Thursday onwards.
  2. Reckon there's a chance of a polar low forming...?
  3. Anyone reckon there's a chance of a polar low developing in that northerly flow?
  4. I've gotta say the GFS ensembles are the best I've seen all season for sure. Lots of intra-model agreement as well as inter-model agreement. First time this season there's a very definite drop in temps with less scatter in the GEFS, with some bringing 850 temps below -10 for my area in the North East. Interesting week ahead.
  5. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    It's in FL so I'm really not concerned with long range output when the models have been struggling with short range modelling recently. The CFS has changed its tune regarding its long range forecast already I think so it's still all up in the air. I'd rather enjoy this current wintry spell than worry about Christmas for now
  6. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    This is a wait-and-see scenario. It's essentially GFS/ECM + other lowkey models Vs. UKMO. The UKMO could of course be correct and has been before. But currently the odds are in favour of very cold weather. 00z runs will be the most important for some time as to whether the GFS or ECM remain stubborn or move towards the UKMO. I wouldn't worry too much about the Fax charts atm but the 00z runs will shed a lot more light. Nervous few hours but good model watching regardless
  7. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Agreed, but in winter in particular it performs quite poorly compared to Euros. Not sure about other seasons but in my experience the GFS regularly gets it wrong in winter.
  8. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    This platform is hilarious. Just days ago the GFS was completely off just a couple of days out while the ECM/UKMO were more on the money. This time the ECM/UKMO are showing the cold and people are fully backing the GFS for some reason. One things for sure, I'd rather have the ECM/UKMO showing cold and the GFS showing mild than the other way round. Plenty to be optimistic about imo. GFS has been an embarrassment to its programmers the last couple of winters. Hopefully a similar situation here!
  9. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    I'm pretty sure they don't haha. Gfs performance has been so poor over the past few winters and it was only last week it got it wrong only a couple of days out
  10. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Definitely the former after last week's shambles!
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Fantastic blocking. Best since last night. Where are the 'ECM is king' guys now?? ?
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Best block since the 18z last night. Maybe, just maybe... ?
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    If I remember correctly something similar happened in either 2009 or 2010. Models repeatedly showing HLB and cold for UK, then signal dissappeared and then reappeared a week beforehand and verified. Still all up for grabs but hope something similar happens here.
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