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ZK099

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  1. Finally the Para actually doing something interesting...
  2. Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident.
  3. ECM has led with way with this cold spell. Let's hope it continues tonight... If we have a full house Saturday evening/Sunday morning it's a done deal
  4. I wouldn't worry about length too much yet. If that storm out of the US behaves the way we want it to, to perfection, then we could be locked in for some while, which is what the EC46 is suggesting if I'm not mistaken. Tbh it's shown a pretty constant theme of HL Blocking and Euro Troughing throughout January, February and even March. By no means nailed on yet. Let's see what the UKMO says...
  5. Well this is what makes model watching so good. Honestly like watching a thriller football match at times, flipping one way, then another. Fascinating viewing. The intense cold is essentially dependent on the behaviour of that storm coming out of the US. Which model handles those most accurately? As the experts have said, ECM. The ECM shows that low heading south down the UK which results in a much better synoptic set up for us. Looks like the GFS has finally gotten with the programme and fallen in line with the ECM. The UKMO is still the odd one out. However, we have an SSW, favourable teleconnections, low solar activity. It seems as though everything points towards a cold spell and because the ECM handles those storms better, and the cold spell is dependent on the storm, I think the logical step is to back the ECM on this one. Expect the UKMO to come on board soon. Nothing is ever guaranteed in this business but my eggs are in the ECM basket.
  6. Let's hope we have a different type of 'ice' to look forward to in the New Year 😂
  7. GFS ensembles gradually sniffing out colder solutions with an SSW on the horizon? It's beginning to feel a lot like... February 2018
  8. Interesting GFS 18z op. Deep, deep cold out in Europe, first time I've seen it that deep, that close to our shores. Any easterlies thereafter would be extremely potent. Obviously we're not looking at individual op runs at this point, but let's hope it's a trend. Definitely not a bad thing to cool down Europe before we get any easterly winds developing.
  9. Okay so finally the northern blocking signal is strong enough to take the ridge up into Greenland against the weak PV. Got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot more of this now- either with a Greenland High+Euro/Scandi Trough or a Scandi High+UK/Iberian trough
  10. I noticed this. Work keeping an eye on. Has it appeared in the strat forecast before?
  11. I'd wait for NWP to get to grips with the SSW first as the idea is that the Azores ridge drifts northwards into Scandi and across to Greenland. So many notable UK cold spells began with a massive UK high. Patience needed yet.
  12. Luckily it's only a mean anomaly and would become almost redundant if the SSW falls in our favour
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