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Broadmayne blizzard

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    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
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  1. As others have stated nothing went wrong in terms of winter 2018/19 from an atmospheric point of view the atmosphere responded exactly as it should to the way the drivers actually played out as opposed to what many ( including myself) thought was the way they should play out. What did go wrong was the interpretation of the effect the various atmospheric drivers would probably have on our tiny set of islands. That goes from amateurs like me all the way up to the professionals at the met office. Some one in another post has pointed out that we should not treat the Met office 15-30 day extended as gospel and indeed we should not, but we do have a right to expect it to come somewhere near to fruition when it repeatedly suggests the likelyhood of high pressure to build to the north or over scandi as it pretty much did for six weeks from christmas to mid feb. I personally feel that what was got wrong was the weighting given to the various drivers. Those drivers need to be weighted in the correct way and in a very narrow of accuracy within a very broad band of context for us to get severe or long lasting cold/snow in the UK. In a way I shouldn't complain as I had a very decent 10cm snowfall here in central south Dorset just 5 miles from the channel coast at a hieght of just 132m asl. The joke of it all is that the snowfall far from being caused by a big scandi high as kept being progged, came instead from a low pressure system running into the base of a big scandi trough.
  2. Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days. Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England. Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn. (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)
  3. All this proves of course is what most of us already know. That is that in the supposedly extraordinary mild spells it is in fact just a few localised areas that get exceptionally mild due to extreme localised Fohn effects whilst most other areas just endure averagely mild temps. At my southern location maxes of 11 and 12 so far this week in a chilly breeze. Nothing abnormal for late Feb mild spell so far.
  4. Not necessarily Mulzy if it shows a consistent signal that counts down to within the 6 day period which it has done plenty of times before. Just not with cold/snowy outlooks this winter. Lol
  5. ECM op yet again showing a complete lack of consistency in the 7-10 day range much like it has all winter. Cold outlier on the 00z and most likely a warm outlier on the 12z. The op has shown this tendency to go straight from one Extreme to the other on numerous occasions this winter.
  6. I think the interesting point here Syed is that ECM GFS GFSPand GEM all show this retrogressive pattern so On balance I'd be more inclined to tight isobars enthusiasm.
  7. Bearing in mind cross model op agreement on that outcome ECM ens could just be lagging behind the curve somewhat and even they are still trending downwards. Could be a false dawn like so many this winter. Like I said earlier not getting excited at all but a trend to watch as we enter March.
  8. Interestingly ECM , GFS and GEM ops all retrogress the euro high to Greenland around the same timeframe on this mornings runs. One to watch as we head into early March.
  9. I wouldn't, normally be looking for guidance in the ten to fifteen day range but the current circumstances of a pretty much static pattern for the next ten days are one where a legitimate exception can be made and looking to see where the high migrates when it eventually moves means that Greenland or Griceland cannot be ruled out according the ens
  10. There are clearly many background signal/drivers and the balance and weighting we should give to them in different circumstances obviously changes. The exploration of how we balance and weight these various inputs is to be applauded and encouraged but it should be understood that despite theany published and peer reviewed papers this is an exploration still very much in its infancy. In an ideal situation clearly driver A being in amplitude B should create analogue C but clearly it doesn't always happen. SSW,s we are told should give us wintry conditions in 60/70percent of cases yet I then read Amy Butler tweeting that only 2 in 13 have when the QBO is westerly as it had become this winter so another relatively seemingly straightforward measure is further complicated. Our media and even the Met office at times try to simplify this down for public consumption but it is not simple. It is is extremely complicated. Some poo-poo background signal altogether because they are too lazy to really try and understand them others I think treat them almost as gospel even though our knowledge of their interaction and effects on one another are limited. That said I am s firm believer that without the study of background signals medium longer range forecasting will not improve. And one thing is for sure when it come to extended and snowy conditions in the UK.ypu won,t get them without the signals we know something about being favourable.
  11. I must admit that while holding out hope for a March snowfall in the wild blue yonder. I will happily take mild DRY and springlike for now. At least I can get ahead with jobs around the house and garden.
  12. Nothing much to add to the above except to add that as we all know that op runs from 144 to 384 always verify exactly as shown don't they.
  13. I think the most galling thing for cold and snow lovers this winter has been the constant misguidance from the models to build high pressure to our north or over Scandi in the medium term. The most laughable thing from this winter is that the 10cm fall of snow I did get was was supplied by a low pressure channel runner running into the base of a massive trough of low pressure .
  14. At the range it is showing I wouldn't be taking any detail seriously at all but the continuing trend of trying to build the pressure further north is a pleasing one to see from a coldies point of view. I would love machine there could be some stonking ensemble runs for the extended period in the set later..
  15. Looking at the GFS 6z control run I can't help wondering if all those towels that were thrown in could have been made into nice scarves for a snowman instead
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