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Broadmayne blizzard

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    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
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  1. Just for fun but a Steve M has highlighted a significant number of the gfs ensemble run going cold or very cold in the extended range. Both Scandi and , Greenie highs showing up as a result of where our mid latitude block goes once it leaves our shores. All pure speculation at that range of course but interesting to note that the blowtorch is not on the table.
  2. So far this winter we have not had to wait more than about a week or so after a cold:/snowy spell to get a gist on the modelling of where the next burst of cold and snow may come from and I don't see any real difference to this going forward. Some are calling winter over but without wishing to offend,this probably has more to do with their impatience than anything else. We have some suggesting that because this is a nina winter that the imprint of cold start mild finish means we are doomed and were this a super strong la nina then I might be drawn but this is a weak nina winter so I would argue that the overarching nina imprint is also weak and can allow other factors to overide it. Further more despite the modelled milder spell after the weekend we have an extremely dishevelled and disorganised PV which from experience often leads to second half of winter action for the UK. In addition the meto outlook stresses uncertainty for late January. and Feb. The models in the short to medium term are doing exactly what GP said they would in terms of possibly over egging the azores high movement into Europe. This is something that could lead to sudden changes in the medium term output once the models start to correct back. We shall see how this pans out. It seems to me that with so much still up in the air and while understanding the frustration of those yet to see any snow (and that includes myself) that writing off any further wintry weather just halfway through January is rather premature to say the very least. One thing is for certain no Meteorologist worth his salt would do such a thing.
  3. While after this weeks excitement in Scotland and the north the models look rather unexciting in the medium. Perhaps one crumb of comfort can be drawn from the fact that the Meto are saying there is a great deal of uncertainty as we head into late January and February. I,m sure we,ll have some more interesting output to ponder in the not too distant future.
  4. presumably due to lack of interest. Or because the ECM staff are rolling on the floor laughing because its showing another stonking easterly seven days out😁
  5. Always enjoy your posts Carinthian and make a point of reading them though I think you might need to give those weather portal providers of yours a bit of a slap for leading you up the garden path about cold and snow coming from the east. lol. keep posting.and enjoy those metres of snow you have.
  6. mmmmn......That sun being higher in the sky didn't seem to make much difference in Feb 78 Feb 79 Feb 86 Feb91 Feb 94 Feb 96 Feb 2009 Down here Shaky
  7. Its one set of runs in a situation where GP also suggested the models would have. tendency to over do the westerly influence. The problem with following every operational run as though it is gospel will always give mixed results and emotions as suggested longer term outcomes come and go Its better to take the whole suite, ensembles included:before making a judgement believe last nights ECM de bilt ensembles were pretty evenly split between easterly and westerly outcomes later on. So still a knife edge in terms of the longer range outcomes I would say.
  8. Sleety mix falling here a few miles east of Dorchester
  9. Yes Timmytour I was just thinking the same thing. lol chart for 17th an 1947 jet heading northeast over the euro high. Three days later the snowiest winter since 1815 started. Its as easy as that. lol
  10. Yes I feeling generous for moment there.
  11. If we take GP's thoughts regarding the nwp models wanting to overdo the Azores high ridging into Europe days7-10. Then this is presumably because they are also mishandling developments upstream as well. So for now I'm taking all stuff beyond 120 with a huge pinch of salt
  12. That'll be the cold spell that hasn't arrived and the one we don't yet know the length of then.
  13. Without wishing to offend in anyway there are an awful lot of ridiculous winter's over type post in here this morning. Anyone thinking any model has got anything on the nail beyond 120/144 at the moment is living in FI themselves.
  14. Yes Teits the Nwp is showing exactly the kind of over the top westerly signal GP was referring to. I think we'll find the medium to longer range reality is closer to yesterdays GFS 12z than this mornings output.