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Broadmayne blizzard

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    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
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  1. Broadmayne blizzard

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    A very interesting forecast Roger which if it came off would probably produce something not unlike 1978/79 here in the south. Where the cold and snow was broken by stormier milder spells at times.
  2. 16 mm of rain by 8am and still chucking it down here in Broadmayne very windy too. Still its just a one day drought buster before normal service is resumed later in the week. Even with todays rain. Its going to end up being an excptional summer here.
  3. Well here in Broadmayne drought conditions continue to reign supreme with just 1.25mm of rain since 1st June.
  4. Indeed so Frosty. Here at Broadmayne I have had just half a millimetre of rain in the last 47 days and looking like more of the same. On course at my station for the driest June/July on record (including 1976)
  5. indeed so NWS the BBC extended forecast has become pretty poor since meteo group took over the contract. I still watch it but then look at the met office to see really likely to happen.
  6. Broadmayne blizzard

    The Helm Wind

    Greatest post OON the snow shots remind me of Feb 1978 down here in Dorset.
  7. I was thinking along the same lines BA. It really wouldn't' take much at all to see the pattern back west especially with jet stream seeming not particularly lively. Wouldn't be surprised in the longer term and beyond to see things more generally settling down with just the odd relatively weak and short lived incursion of westerly stuff.
  8. Even though I,m a cold and snow lover at heart. (Despite working outdoors). I must admit to looking foward to a spell of consistent warm temperatures I love a cold/ snowy winter but backwards springs don,t really rock my boat. At all. i really enjoyed the patient winter ( I always thought it would come, especially after the SSW )wait for the snow to arrive latterly in March but now let's Move forward to a decent summer with some good hot spells for those who love that sort of thing, Then prepare ourselves for next winter which I have a feeling will make the one just gone look like a very tame affair.
  9. Ukmo trying to ride to the Coldies rescue this morning. Minus 8's. Uppers over a large portion of the uk on Easter Sunday.
  10. Still way to early call anything on this yet. Yes the models have moved away from the snowier outcomes today but in such a finely poised and complex situation I would expect more changes to come over the next few days
  11. As we await the ECM. It is interesting to note that all the outputs are really just small geographical variations (in global terms) on the same theme.Namely a cold air/milder air boundary somewhere across the uk during the easter weekend. Will the low to the southwest blow up as much as the gfs suggests? We now that it has a bias for overblowing areas of low pressure. So lots to ponder. Of course the small variations in global terms make a massive difference as to who gets snow on our small island. Still way too early to call it yet.
  12. Although of course we don't necessarily need deep cold to stream south of the midlands for snow. We just need it to be just cold enough. Still anyones guess though as you suggested earlier. Probably monday before we make any semi- firm predictions. lol
  13. That's always the thing when you get a possible boundary lying somewhere across the UK between cold and snowy and less cold/milder and rainy. MWB. The way I see it at the moment is that the GFS is doing its usual thing that it does at this range. In other words its jumps about screaming at the longer lead time saying look look look snowmageddon is coming then then it backs off in the medium term before coming back to the snowier outcome nearer the time. It has done this countless times over the years. The main thing we learn't from the two previous cold /snowy outbreaks earlier this month is that as Steve Murr reminded us the other day nothing will really get sorted until around 96 to120 when the envelope of possible outcomes will narrow markedly. Personally I feel that the boundary for a possible dumping of snow will be further south than currently modelled but how much further south is the big question.
  14. Indeed so Feb. Both the beast scenarios in March have been high risk high rewards situations that have corrected themselves from initial doubts to provide the maximum possible snow. So the form horse atm would appear to be for the runs to correct themselves again for maximum impact.
  15. Interesting 12z ecm which is not a million miles away from the 18z gfs snow fest of lastt evening. As Nick Sussex says could go pear shaped but given recent events an upgrade to a more widespread snowy out come would probably be more likely.