Jump to content

Broadmayne blizzard

Members
  • Content count

    347
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1,035 Exceptional

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowfall

Recent Profile Visitors

800 profile views
  1. Even though I,m a cold and snow lover at heart. (Despite working outdoors). I must admit to looking foward to a spell of consistent warm temperatures I love a cold/ snowy winter but backwards springs don,t really rock my boat. At all. i really enjoyed the patient winter ( I always thought it would come, especially after the SSW )wait for the snow to arrive latterly in March but now let's Move forward to a decent summer with some good hot spells for those who love that sort of thing, Then prepare ourselves for next winter which I have a feeling will make the one just gone look like a very tame affair.
  2. Ukmo trying to ride to the Coldies rescue this morning. Minus 8's. Uppers over a large portion of the uk on Easter Sunday.
  3. Still way to early call anything on this yet. Yes the models have moved away from the snowier outcomes today but in such a finely poised and complex situation I would expect more changes to come over the next few days
  4. As we await the ECM. It is interesting to note that all the outputs are really just small geographical variations (in global terms) on the same theme.Namely a cold air/milder air boundary somewhere across the uk during the easter weekend. Will the low to the southwest blow up as much as the gfs suggests? We now that it has a bias for overblowing areas of low pressure. So lots to ponder. Of course the small variations in global terms make a massive difference as to who gets snow on our small island. Still way too early to call it yet.
  5. Although of course we don't necessarily need deep cold to stream south of the midlands for snow. We just need it to be just cold enough. Still anyones guess though as you suggested earlier. Probably monday before we make any semi- firm predictions. lol
  6. That's always the thing when you get a possible boundary lying somewhere across the UK between cold and snowy and less cold/milder and rainy. MWB. The way I see it at the moment is that the GFS is doing its usual thing that it does at this range. In other words its jumps about screaming at the longer lead time saying look look look snowmageddon is coming then then it backs off in the medium term before coming back to the snowier outcome nearer the time. It has done this countless times over the years. The main thing we learn't from the two previous cold /snowy outbreaks earlier this month is that as Steve Murr reminded us the other day nothing will really get sorted until around 96 to120 when the envelope of possible outcomes will narrow markedly. Personally I feel that the boundary for a possible dumping of snow will be further south than currently modelled but how much further south is the big question.
  7. Indeed so Feb. Both the beast scenarios in March have been high risk high rewards situations that have corrected themselves from initial doubts to provide the maximum possible snow. So the form horse atm would appear to be for the runs to correct themselves again for maximum impact.
  8. Interesting 12z ecm which is not a million miles away from the 18z gfs snow fest of lastt evening. As Nick Sussex says could go pear shaped but given recent events an upgrade to a more widespread snowy out come would probably be more likely.
  9. Don,t forget that other springtime favourite Nick. The polar Low. These have brought some spectacular April snowfalls through the years. Interesting to see both the ECM AND GFS singing froma broadly similar hymnsheet at 240. A situation which could spawn the aforementioned polar low.
  10. Sadly from a cold and snowlovers point of view the trend to sink the Scandie high southwest very quickly after the initial cold pool over the weekend has gained some traction today across the models. So it does look like being a relatively quick cold snap. Although there are no blow torches on the horizon following on from this. Indeed the ECM gives us another tease at days 9/10 with a much bigger cold pool over Scandinavia that could be advected west if as Nick Sussex has already suggested there was a slight retrogression in the pattern which is not out of the question. A lot of water under the bridge between now and then though and hopefully some snow on top of the bridge as well. We will see,
  11. To me the current ecm output is looking at a shortlived cold snap rather than a cold spell. Snow is anyones guess away from the east and sadly it ties in with Darren Betts bbc extended forecast of mild again by the middle of next week. All this talk of a cold /snowy easter seems somewhat far fetched.
  12. ECM a humdinger at 120 this morning and a channel low with minus 8 uppers next Sunday anyone.
  13. Ecm certainly setting things up nicely within the reliable timeframe. Beyond 144 is speculation at the moment.
  14. ECM this morning does its usual trick having teased us with some potentially cold runs by producing something completely meh. It always seems to do this at some point when a cold spell is approaching. Jumps between it cold and mild clusters before settling back into the general run towards a colder outlook.
×