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Broadmayne blizzard

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    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
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  1. Meanwhile amidst all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. We have our first enemble member breaching the minus 10 barrier.
  2. So this morning's 0z GFS op not as exciting as yesterday's at the same time. However more of the ensembles go cold in the medium term compared to this time yesterday. So perhaps a steadily growing trend towards something wintry.
  3. Just a quick reminder that this morning's GFS 0z op run was not the only run that went very cold in its ensemble suite. Pretty sure the 06z will have some very cold options again as well. Of course they could all be totally wrong but at least it keeps this thread buzzing which is great to see.
  4. Hi S4L The GFS 0z op is not on its own in the enembles either . Interesting times.
  5. An exceptional cold wave this one. At Southampton the temp dropped from 8c at 8 am to minus 2c at midday on the 31st Jan 1956.
  6. JFF but FI on the hrs 0z is rather lovely this morning memories of late November nine years ago come to mind.
  7. Hi Ali. You ask could another once in 100 year event ie December 2010 happen again so soon. Here's another way of looking at it. Winter 1947 was the snowiest since 1815 so was a once in 132 year event at the time. The winter of 1963 was the coldest since 1740 so was a once in a 223 year event at the time Yet both these ultra extreme winter events happened within 16 years of each other. Which makes getting another once in 100 year December look pretty easy by comparison. Lol
  8. Hi PIT .Down here in Dorset I’m already on 448mm for the autumn so far.
  9. Hi Crewe. Regarding Dec 2010 I don't think many on here would be too disappointed if the vortex reorganised after giving us Five weeks of deep cold and snow like it did back then. But certainly take your point about how quickly it can reorganise.
  10. I have to respectfully disagree with you there Ryan. Although it picked up weak blocking to the north. By not picking up on the continual Azores high interference. It missed out on the strongest element affecting our weather in that period. If it can't pick out the strongest element affecting the weather in any given winter period then it has essentially failed to pick up the strongest signal and as such by signalling weak blocking to the north rather than strong Azores high facors it didn't forecast the period correctly even at a broad rush level
  11. I suppose the best reason for not looking forward to winter in my part of the UK is that quite simply. It hardly ever turns up as winter in the genuinely seasonal sense of the word. More often it's just the worst aspects of Autumn extended to six months.
  12. Living within a few miles of the south coast in central southern England. I approach every winter more in hope than expectation. I find that way that even just few cold days with the risk of snow can bring some real excitement. The last two winters have brought heavy snow falls two in 2018 and one in 2019 added to these are the exceptional December of 2010 with several heavy falls. Jan 2012 and 2013 also brought significant snow. Slight accumulations also occured in 2015 as well. So for me the winters of the current decade have been much better than those of the noughties and the nineties for that matter. Both in terms of low minima and most certainly substantial snowfall. What this winter will bring is still very much up in the air. I gave up on seasonal models ages ago as they are way too broad brush to pick up on even a fortnight of cold snowy weather at such long range. Yet a fortnight of cold and snowy weather ok n a winter would more suffice for all but the pickiest members on this forum. The coming winter will bring what it brings, but if it can't be at least partly cold and snowy then let it be mild and dry as MP-R suggest in his post. Mild and wet for weeks on end is just so boring.
  13. As others have stated nothing went wrong in terms of winter 2018/19 from an atmospheric point of view the atmosphere responded exactly as it should to the way the drivers actually played out as opposed to what many ( including myself) thought was the way they should play out. What did go wrong was the interpretation of the effect the various atmospheric drivers would probably have on our tiny set of islands. That goes from amateurs like me all the way up to the professionals at the met office. Some one in another post has pointed out that we should not treat the Met office 15-30 day extended as gospel and indeed we should not, but we do have a right to expect it to come somewhere near to fruition when it repeatedly suggests the likelyhood of high pressure to build to the north or over scandi as it pretty much did for six weeks from christmas to mid feb. I personally feel that what was got wrong was the weighting given to the various drivers. Those drivers need to be weighted in the correct way and in a very narrow of accuracy within a very broad band of context for us to get severe or long lasting cold/snow in the UK. In a way I shouldn't complain as I had a very decent 10cm snowfall here in central south Dorset just 5 miles from the channel coast at a hieght of just 132m asl. The joke of it all is that the snowfall far from being caused by a big scandi high as kept being progged, came instead from a low pressure system running into the base of a big scandi trough.
  14. Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days. Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England. Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn. (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)
  15. All this proves of course is what most of us already know. That is that in the supposedly extraordinary mild spells it is in fact just a few localised areas that get exceptionally mild due to extreme localised Fohn effects whilst most other areas just endure averagely mild temps. At my southern location maxes of 11 and 12 so far this week in a chilly breeze. Nothing abnormal for late Feb mild spell so far.
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