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Broadmayne blizzard

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    Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
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  1. Not strictly cet related but just an interesting sidenote. I have been recording temperature and rainfall in south Dorset for the last 29 years. So far this year I have not yet registered a temperature of 20c or above. This sets a new record. Every other year has seen 20c reached or breached well before todays date date. Even previous late years got there no later than 7th May. That is quite something for a lowland location within 5 miles of the south coast.
  2. This is starting to get a feel of the April 1981’s about it.
  3. I admire your enthusiasm Matt and always enjoy your posts. But in reality for large parts of the UK the last easterly was mainly dry. It was what I call a usual suspects easterly. Any high ground on the Eastern side did well along with some but not all parts of East Anglia and the south east along with some northern towns. However lots of people I know in various parts of the UK saw nothing or at most a passing flurry. For me the Early Feb Easterly was not outstanding in anyway. Temps above freezing by day a couple below freezing by night and as for snow I,ve seen more icing sugar on a mince
  4. Indeed Tim that would be nice for those of us in snow starved Wessex who are still awaiting our first decent snowfall of the winter
  5. Yes Blue. GFS has its usual stock of post 300 hours teases.
  6. Wow. And only another 60 model runs to get through to reel this baby in. 😂
  7. It's worth remembering that forecast temps are shade temps so 20c in the shade can easily be a 25-27c day in the sun. Whilst I love sunshine, having worked outside all my life I still find hot and humid my most disliked kind of weather.
  8. That'll be the the same EC 46 that had us in the freezer right through February will it? JFF at this stage but the 18z sensational op evolution from last night is still there this morning as perturbation No 2 on the 0z ensembles.
  9. Having just scanned the gfs ens graphs for each run from last nights 18z through to todays 12z. There are more than enough runs dropping down below minus 5 towards minus 10 and below as we head into early March to keep coldies and snowies interested for a while yet. Yes we have a mild second half of Feb to get through but at least there are hints of a change of regime with the change of the month. I shall be watching the trend on the ens graph in that early March period with interest over the next week or two to see if this becomes an increasing feature.
  10. Yes those who didn't do well snow-wise so far probably a bit jaded with it all. But thats a cracking chart for early march. Let see what unfolds.
  11. Timmytour you make a very good point. Even if an ssw does create a cracking set up of Northern Blocking you still have to be on the right side of it to get the most out of it. For our tiny Island ( on a global scale) the position and orientation of any northern blocking is crucial and small tweaks can make very big differences locally within the UK snowfall wise. Early last week the orientation was great for eastern Scotland then storm Darcy tweaked the edges enough to bring North east England and East anglia and the southeast into play for a while then another tweak to a southeasterly flow
  12. Mulzy. am I right in thinkinging that the day before the ecm bought into the gfs milder outlook that we are now entering that the eps and mean were keeping us in the freezer for the foreseeable.
  13. With the ukmo and ecm only going out to 7 and 10 days respectively on theirpublicly available operationals and the next possible cold shot not due until the very end of Feb or beginning of March. we are for now left looking at the gefs or extended eps for any signals in that direction............................... or even dare I say it the cfs. which has been consistently hinting at a cold end to feb and early March for a long time..........................rather like it did in 2018. ( picks up straws, clutches them tightly and goes home) 😂
  14. We're seeing the two sides of a blocked meridional flow from cold to warm, worth remembering that this kind of set up can change back to cold just as suddenly as it changes to warm at this time of year. It's a two way street
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