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Building Blocks

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  1. The slightly slower evolution on the ECM may actually be preferable to the GFS as it allows more of an initial bridge in heights between the Arctic and Scandinavia. This could open the door to much deeper cold if we were to get some sort of Easterly flow towards the end of January
  2. Here in Newcastle it’s been clear for a long period now. I’ve never seen so many lines of showers miss an area over the past 24hrs no matter what the wind direction it appears
  3. Incredibly heavy shower again here in Newcastle. Whiteout conditions. This last hour has started to make up for showers we missed out on earlier
  4. We may have to wait a bit longer on the ECM than the GFS for the real cold to set in but in reality it is actually much better synoptically speaking for a longer cold spell
  5. Also worth noting the possibility of some really low night time maxima in this upcoming spell as winds fall light at times under sub -10 uppers
  6. Wow what a 18z GFS. These upgrades really have progressed fast in the last day or two. These really are remarkable charts. Yes we may have seen slightly colder uppers than this reaching our shores from the East before but to have an extensive mass of -10 uppers approaching from the West also is truly amazing.
  7. That's very true, but i always feel its nicer to be looking for potential out at days 9/10 whilst already in cool/cold flow, which we will be up until Thursday/Friday. Always have slightly more patience when you don't have to walk outside and it be 15 degrees and raining!
  8. Anyone mind me re-posting this? As it is one of my first posts so took a bit of time and it got lost in the free - for - all that seems to occur watching nearly every model run on here. Its crazy but we all love it!
  9. Having a had a look at the latest trends being picked up by the ECM 12z and now the GFS 18z, it looks as though a complex pattern is evolving at around the 7 day timeframe. This is based around two areas of high pressure, a blocking high to the NW centred near Greenland and an area of high pressure to the SE over Europe and two areas of low pressure, one out to the SW in the azores and one to the NE up over Northern Scandinavia How these interact is crucial, obviously affected by the much maligned Shortwaves! The most favoured outcome for coldies is for more of the Southern high pres
  10. I think one major positive to take from the runs at the moment, in particular the GFS, GEM, and ECM but also the UKMO to some extent, is that these good looking charts for cold lovers are appearing at a relatively short timescale and not deep in FI (like is usually the case).
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