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Andy92

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Posts posted by Andy92


  1. :  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
    Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
    across the country during the day.  Hurricane-force winds are
    expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
    afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
    Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
    completion by this afternoon.
    
    Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
    are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
    indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
    even greater.
    
    RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
    3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
    mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
    eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
    or less.
    
    STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
    significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
    center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
    accompanied by large and destructive waves.
    • Sad 1

  2. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.

  3. Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
    environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
    24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
    this time in agreement with the guidance.  After that, the hurricane
    is expected to move over cooler water.  As that happens, though,
    interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
    Ophelia keep its intensity.  Extratropical transition should begin
    by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
    low by 96 h.  The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
    affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
    as a powerful extratropical low.
    
    Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
    Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
    eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
    wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  12/0900Z 30.3N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
     12H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
     24H  13/0600Z 31.3N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
     36H  13/1800Z 32.2N  32.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
     48H  14/0600Z 33.7N  28.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
     72H  15/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
     96H  16/0600Z 49.0N  13.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  17/0600Z 59.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    

     

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/120840.shtml

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