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  1. We'll hold out hope! But unfortunately once we see a cold spell downgraded, and as we've seen so many times before. Once the downgrades on a cold spell begin, that process then usually accelerates rather than reverse back to cold unfortunately.
  2. The 0z runs pretty much continue the poor output from the 18z. It looks like another cold spell has been downgraded again. From days of winter wonderland charts to nothingness within a few runs, we saw it with the Easterly a week or so ago and now this Nwesterly/northerly. Trends look poor this morning.
  3. 18z looking pretty poor it must be said, hopefully we've not been lured into another cold spell only for it to be watered down as the runs progress over the next 24hrs or so.
  4. The longer the block holds on the better imo, once the Atlantic breaks through we'll be starting all over again. If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output, you just never know what may happen. We shouldn't wish a block in such a position away so quickly, if by the weekend it's still modelled to be pushed away then fair enough. But if over the next few days it could just sneak a little further towards us anything is possible.
  5. The lack of cold in Europe is a shame, even if we do pull an easterly component there's nothing to tap into without waiting a week or so. Just to have had half of that cold currently in the NE states of America in Europe would have been lovely!
  6. We've waited so long (years) for these synoptics, and now we seem to finally have them it's such a shame Europe isn't colder right now. I know the cold and uppers will eventually come, but waiting makes everything that bit more of a risk imo. But if everything plays out like the 12z ECM we will be more than happy!
  7. Thanks. Fingers crossed and hope for the best I guess
  8. How do we think Suffolk will do tomorrow? Rain or snow?
  9. Snowing heavily here in Bury St Edmund's now. Grass, roof tops etc turning white.
  10. It's more the fact the ensembles etc continuously lead us up the garden path.
  11. Cold always wins out in FI, but come +180 or so it's inevitable the mild will win. It's like a repeat record.
  12. Might make it by march if we're lucky at this rate 😂
  13. Trying to get cold into our country the past few years is hopeless. This weeks so called "cold snap" was also woeful unless you live up a hill somewhere. I don't know why we bother watching this model output sometimes, gfs, ecm all look nailed on for cold, ensembles looked promising etc. And just like that we're practically back into mild mush.
  14. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    I'm not comparing this to 2010, but remember when the breakdown was supposedly coming but it just kept getting pushed back day upon day.
  15. So as we enter autumn we see the Azores high having the main say again. The mild/warmth of the of the next week just doesn't excite me in October. Can't we have a nice cell of high pressure sat over us in autumn nowadays without it bringing mild muck? Pleasant autumn days with cool crisp nights feel like something autumn never brings anymore. Here's hoping the next weeks pattern doesn't last too long. I know our weather is generally a south westerly pattern, but I'm sure everyone would just like to see some seasonal weather for a change. Whether that be summer, autumn winter or spring. The past few years I don't recall any season truly delivering what it should, I just hope this doesn't continue through this autumn and beyond.