jonboy

Where not seen it yet in York!!

Thanks MIA I copy a part of the introduction to a paper on the effects of water vapor in the stratosphere from 2019 Water vapor (H2O) is a key trace gas throughout the Earth's atmosphere. It fundamentally regulates the weather and climate of our planet (Brasseur & Solomon, 1995; Wallace & Hobbs, 2006). Water vapor in the stratosphere originates from both transport of tropospheric air through the tropical tropopause (Brewer, 1949) and in situ methane oxidation in the middle to upper stratosphere (Jones et al., 1986). Increasing stratospheric water vapor, especially in the lower stratosphere, cools the stratosphere but warms the troposphere (Dessler et al., 2013; Foster & Shine, 1999; Oinas et al., 2001; Shindell, 2001; Smith et al., 2001; Solomon et al., 2010). Accordingly, the 10% decrease of stratospheric water vapor right after 2000 (Randel et al., 2006) could have slowed the rate of global surface temperature increase by about 25% (Solomon et al., 2010). Increased water vapor in the stratosphere can also enhance polar stratospheric cloud formation and lead to more prolonged high-latitude ozone loss (Kirk-Davidoff et al., 1999; Shindell, 2001; Forster and Shine, 1999). In the upper mesosphere, more abundant water vapor from increasing methane contributes to more frequent polar mesospheric cloud occurrences at ~82 km (Thomas et al., 1989; Lubken et al., 2018). Based on all the mechanisms above, we argue that a long-term increase or decrease of water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere will have fundamental global and regional impacts. It is clear to me that given the huge increase in water vapor in the stratosphere from the hunga tonga eruption that we should not be surprised by the large number of extreme heat and excessive rainfall pockets we have seen over the last 12 months. There is considerable amount of research going on in regards to the effect of this eruption and I found it interesting in NICK F's early winter thoughts he referenced the possible effects as an unknown. So it is beginning to enter main stream forecasting. Keep up the good work not everything is about CO2

Listen to yourself. You are ignoring the most powerful green house gas that has been circulating this planet for the last 18 months in concentrations not seen before in a place it shouldn’t . That has happened not because of co2 concentration but because of a volcanic eruption. Until that effect is properly quantified you can't say that the excess warming over that period is down to co2. I haven't said our climate isn't warming I have said let's not jump to conclusions on this most recent surge which could be temporary as that excess water vapour disperses. So I suggest you fully understand the complexity of the science before you Jesus christ me.

What I find really interesting in Nick F early winter thoughts he has specifically noted as one of the key variables that brings uncertainty to what is happening is the water vapour from hunga tonga that has now found its way to the poles. Until we fully understand the impact this most important green house gas has had you can't fully understand the true underlying trend.

Having had another look at both the video and pictures from the mail online article, firstly the fire at the front of the land/range rover looks odd to be caused by that vehicle and looking at the video again the collapse looks explosive rather than progressive you would expect with an ICE fire. This looks like an EV battery explosion that caused the collapse and the sheer intensity of the fire would point that way to.

Its on the BBC feed into the incident.

Fire service now reporting that a 'lot' of EV involved from early on in the fire which would account for the intensity and speed of the fire.

Reports seem to confirm a diesel car started the fire. It will be interesting to read the reports once investigation completed as the spread and speed of the fire is quite extreme.

Some of the eye witness reports would suggest an EV. I wouldn't be surprised if all 1200 cars are lost as much down to the structural instability and the cost to shore up the floors before anything can be moved on ground floor. I would say everything above ground floor level is gone.

You have to believe in the sell and this government doesn't so why would the people

Under the present regime that won't happen No profit in providing a proper nationwide network

In 50 years we might have in the planning stage a high speed national railway network!!!

It isn't the increased risk as such its the increased intensity. When an electric car burns firstly its very difficult to control and put out but more importantly the heat generated is significantly greater than either diesel or petrol vehicles. in context a diesel /petrol burns at roughly 1500F whereas a EV burns at 5000F 3 times the intensity. In 2017 a fire in an old range rover destroyed a multi-storey car park with the loss of some 1300 vehicles imagine what an EV fire will do.

Add into the mix the increased danger from electrical car fires that are very intense which means vastly increased fire protection for all underground car parks and arguably car parks in general that have charging points.

Cite as: Martin Jucker, Chris Lucas, Deepashree Dutta. Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection. ESS Open Archive . August 04, 2023. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.169111653.36341315/v1

Sorry Markyo You totally miss my point. I am not talking about co2 climate change I am talking about certain extreme events which can be better explained by the hunga tonga event These extremes have occurred since hunga tonga.

Closed mindset springs forward. Latest research would indicate that that the stratospheric water vapour from hunga tonga is likely to cause 1.5c of warming in parts of the NH but equally in other parts may cause 1 c of cooling. The present pockets of extreme weather is not co2 induced

Just reinforced my point well done.

I suppose you've never heard the phrase Indian Summer.

Really I know this is aimed at me. At what point in my posts have I denied warming is taking place. You and others should take the time to properly read my posts. They relate only to the extreme heat events in the last 12 months or less and the excessive rainfall and snowfall also occurring at the same time. I have offered an alternative explanation that has some science behind it yet you and others have gone out of you way to call me a denier flat earther and worse. At least I have an open mind that is will to look at alternatives so who are the real deniers I wonder.

A few quotes from a paper Jane J. Lee and Andrew Wang of the Jet Propulsion Lab at NASA 'The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.' 'In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer.' ' After the Tonga volcano erupted, the MLS team started seeing water vapor readings that were off the charts. “We had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,” said Millán.' 'This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects' Fermin Koop writing in Geophysical Research letters estimated the water vapor ejected by Hunga Tonga could take between 5 and 10 years to leave the stratosphere. You write off the effects of the eruption as if it has no consequence. All to often the go to excuse for weather events is CO2 induced climate change when clearly other factors are at play and explain better the extreme events we are seeing at present. I am not talking about cold pockets I'm talking about the heat pockets and excess rain pockets that are travelling around our globe

And you clearly don't understand water vapor. Perhaps you would like to chat with NASA scientists who predicted this. Water Vapor is by far the most potent warming element in our atmosphere. What has changed significantly in the last 18 months water vapor in the stratosphere.

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

Agree sleepy. What people aren't doing is looking at the cause of these extremes they just go co2 driven climate change when it's clearly not. This is water vapour in the stratosphere driven as a result of hunga tonga. Back to normal in a couple of years.

Indian summer 13.0 and 105mm of rain please