jonboy

I rarely comment in this thread as I'm not a great reader of the models. However there are some fantastic charts being shown which hopefully will bring winter joy to many. But lets put into perspective each model. Firstly the GFS (Global Forecasting System) this is an American based forecasting tool it will be great at getting it right around America it will be less right further afield ie europe especially the further out the model prediction goes. Gem is a Canadian model so much the same applies ECM a European model great for us but less likely to get what happens around the US right again the further out the modelling goes. ICON is german I believe so similar to ECM and of course UKMET model will be great for us but again maybe poor at modelling whats happens in the states. My point is don't take any model as gospel especially beyond 5 days try and assess each model taking account of their individual bias nearer to their own locations. We are going to get a proper winter spell and winter is just beginning.

Agree this is hunga tonga at play with all that extra water vapour. If people think we have had it bad I would suggest they look at what has been happening in queensland and specifically the gold Coast over the last months

A late 3.9 and 99mm please

The Rangers Ross County game has been postponed because Ross County cant get to the game because of the conditions on the A9

Not you Carinthian who won the 201m last night!!

I agree with everything you have said snowbear. That's why we need to be cautious about this years heat extremes and saying it is down to co2 climate change. Hopefully with all the research being undertaken we may get a better understanding of the role of water vapour in the climate change debate. One other key impact of hunga tonga is the impact on ozone and its consequences on temperature.

I await with baited breath to see who utterly disagrees with you I for one agree we don't fully know the impact of hunga tonga and research clearly states it is likely to have had a warming effect on the climate system.

This thread has taken a nasty turn when people talk about exterminating or taking out those who they call deniers or are counter to their particular take on things. Its not acceptable in my view.

So as far as you're concerned water vapour has no role and is not a green house gas! The eruption was January 22 so would have impacted last year as well.

And the driver for these extremes this last year is clearly water vapour from hunga tonga

I was 7 in 62 but better memories of 67 and 69 as I had more freedom to do what we liked and could disappear for almost all day without having to report in!!

And 63 was boxing day 62

I've skied Mt Mansfield at Stowe fabulous resort. A bit of trivia is that the real Von Trapp family lived in Stowe after the war and just outside Stowe is the original Ben & Jerry ice cream factory. Keep up the great work KW

Light dusting in York

I wish people would remember its still November and for many of us old timers winter is still 3 weeks away. The cold is getting entrenched to our north and east and once the mjo and other synoptics allow we could be in for a memorable cold period. Patience is a virtue why have a smearing of jam when you can have a big dollop of jam and cream later.

Suddenly for a number of posters past 120hrs is the gospel according to Saint Mild!!! Tomorrow will no doubt be different again.

Going early for me and 3.2c and 71mm please

The models are going to vary be up and down. For me its not yet winter I'm old fashion and don't see winter starting until the 21st the winter solstice. What we see modelled is a bonus whether it is short lived or say a 10 days but it is potentially a) cooling things down and b) setting us up for a remember able winter. Don't over analyse enjoy the journey.

Thanks MIA confirmed my thoughts especially with reference to Hunga Tonga. The research ongoing I believe will change a few preconceived notions re ice etc.

The figures I've seen suggests a slow down in the rate of loss of ice for this time of year. If it continues at this rate for the rest of their summer it is likely it will no longer be at the lowest level on record. Interesting times.

Never had any issues perhaps its a network provider issue

I would be interested to know if the temperature can be split between night and day. In my mind a lot of the increases in the mean is driven by high night time temperature rather than daytime temperature

Makes my temp quest for November look decidedly high!!

Of course not h2o doesn't fit the agenda I would recommend reading some of the latest research papers!!

7.9 and 162mm please