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Everything posted by John Michael How
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Model output discussion 14/04/18
John Michael How replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sods law if it happens then when I'm off for my birthday the 15th is the famous St Swithuns Day 40 days and nights rainfall- which if it did happen would mean game set and match for the dry weather as last year proved the only time I've ever seen rain on 15th July here in Kent! -
Model output discussion 14/04/18
John Michael How replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Twas an amazing summer my grandparents from Mauritius were over and even they were saying how hot it was! On another note could Navgem be leading the way?Lol someone mentioned recently that it rightfully forecast the july1st record temp at Heathrow of a few years ago days in advance and stuck to it's guns when all the main models didn't want to know? -
Model output discussion 14/04/18
John Michael How replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Itv London weather tonight mentioned likely 30c by Monday in the SE -
Thanks for the heads up. I started and have ended the day in Gravesend where I live but I was at work through the day mostly around Surrey and Heathrow( twice) earlier and a little drive to the chilterns which was lovely windows down, all the pollen blowing around was a bit of a irritant) but its better than my usual drive into the big smoke of central London that I will be back doing tomorrow. It's funny how it's always the same 3 or 4 locations that record the highest temperatures depending on the wind direction.
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Model output discussion 14/04/18
John Michael How replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I live in Gravesend and have been to Heathrow and central London today as a driver I can confirm it felt a lot warmer than the low 20s this afternoon. And tomorrow's meant to be a fair bit hotter still! Although the SE admittedly has naff winters in general I must admit we do ok in summer being pretty sheltered from the Atlantic influences that you northerners know all about. Let's hope we get some warmth for all parts. I remember in the September 2016 heatwave when Gravesend recorded 34c either the arome or arpege did very well with temp predictions I'll be following those models more closely now I think after today -
Model output discussion 14/04/18
John Michael How replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perfect spring in my opinion beasts and snow aplenty to start March now temps in mid 20s here in the SE in mid April ? -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
John Michael How replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Out of interest what does the high pressure look like? The pink or blue areas?I'm travelling to Mauritius on Friday in the vast pink section- hoping their unusually wet summer has come to an end! Abnormally warm SSTs have meant an even warmer than average late summer there????? -
To be fair they have had a very wet summer over there with lots of big storms just hope it's improving! Atleast it won't be COLD rain tho if it does ? it's greatly affected by the SSTs being such a small island the temps are close to 30c currently well above the usual high of 28c in contrast to our bellow average SSTs here. Will be out attempting to catch marlin and record size tuna so I hope it calms down there!
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Is it still the rather enthusiastic Romanian looking guy I used to work around there at burnt ash hill- I give him his due he is persistent lol. I guess the weather in his country experiences more extremes than here though. One of my neighbours cars got stuck during beast 1 and a Romanian man came to the rescue and helped her narrowly avoid sliding into another car apparently this sort of weather is common in his part of the world plus 10c colder still he said
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
John Michael How replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The met update says the same from what I've read? A lot of uncertainty. Anyway not looking like a deep freeze as you say. For the South anyway but things could change