AnvilCrawlers

15:00 Update Surface observations indicate a convergence zone is developing NE of London and a Surface confluence zone has developed from Central North Norfolk SSW towards London. NE Winds are meeting NNW winds and then meeting SW Winds across London. This is resulting in significant surface uplift across the PINK region of my Forecast. At the same time surface temperatures have reached 24-25C across the Region and somewhat drier more buoyant air is moving north in assoc with the active upper trough to the South. These conditions have resulted in significant surface lift and convection has readily developed. Significant CAPE has developed over East Anglia and Eastern England and Deep Layer Shear has increased somewhat also, this is resulting in some organisation for storms to develop into Multicells this afternoon, with Daughter cells likely to fire to the SSE of the main cells as they drift to the WNW or NW. Tops to -50C to -60C or around 40,000ft in places. Storms have the potential to become quite intense with very large rainfall rates, Hail, and increasingly intense C/G Lightning and an increasing risk of Marginally strong wind gusts. (45mph) Storms will continue to intensify and organise through the late afternoon & evening as the upper level cooling increases and Deep layer shear increases. Storms continuing to move NW this afternoon. The 12Z Herstmoncuex ascent indicates the increasingly favourable thermodynamic environment and modifying the ascent to a temp of 24/25C produces over 1,600 j/kg of MUCAPE. The profile has 27 Knts of DLS with winds veering more SE with height indicating that weaker storms will move WNW and deeper storms which can tap into the larger CAPE can take advantage of the higher Shear values and move NW. The ascent also indicates that a temp of 23-24C will readily produce convection. Fig 1 - 03882 Unmodified Fig 2 - 03882 Modified to a temp of 24.5C Fig 3 - 03882 Hodograph Time of Update 15:30 Paul Blight

Is it me or does it looks like 2 storm heading towards the midlands

12:00 Update Airmass imagery indicates the potent upper trough to the South of the UK remains on course to move north across England & Wales later today. The surface trough is well placed to the South of the Sussex Coast at present and there continue to be Sferics in the region of the deepest convection. This likely to begin to move towards the South Coast and increasingly decay due to frictional affects of Land and fact it will be moving against a NE 925mb wind flow. This will tend to weaken the band as it moves North. This combined with the frictional affects of the band moving onshore will likely be enough to weaken the band, but perhaps the models suggest the weakening trend will be somewhat faster than in reality. As the upper trough moves north the increased vorticity, lift vertical velocity will have the affect of making the air over parts of England (especially SE England and East Anglia) very much more buoyant this afternoon. Temperatures have already reached the low 20s over parts of Eastern England, though there is still considerable cloud further NW. Surface based confluence is now occurring and convection has developed close to the east coast. Convection has also begun to develop from the 850mb Plume off the Norfolk Coast. Therefore across Eastern England we can assume the thermodynamics are quite complex and model detail even in the 1.3KM, 1.5KM and 4KM Models struggling to resolve the complex details of the thermodynamic layers. The 05Z Herstmonceux ascent indicated that considerable drying of the profile had taken place just ahead of the trough moving north. It is not clear how much this will affect the forecast this afternoon. This forecast now calls for the band of rain to decay early this afternoon due to the aforementioned reasons. As the upper trough moves north, surface convection should take over with forecast ascents becoming much more unstable as the afternoon progresses with daytime heating increasing and 500mb cooling we should see a steady but increasing lapse rate through the afternoon. This suggests that CAPE of 500-1000j/kg is likely to develop over parts of East Anglia and Eastern England this afternoon. At the same time the upper trough and low continues to move north and Shear increases especially over SE England and East Anglia. Therefore as the afternoon progresses Storms which do develop from the surface have the potential to become marginally severe with some organisation. Risk of Hail, Torrential Rain and increasingly frequent Lightning. Potential for gusts to increase in assoc with these storms later today too. Yesterday 80mm or so fell in a short period of time. Whilst storms today will generally move faster totals in one location should be less but perhaps a greater number of places impacted. Storms will move NW / WNW as they develop in the steering flow ahead of the upper level low to the South. The vorticity associated with this trough currently looks stronger than the models suggest implying that there is scope for significant development of Thunderstorms across parts of Eastern England and across BENELUX through the afternoon. Heavy Rain moving NW across the Midlands, into NW England where the rain will be slow moving and stay throughout the night. Models suggest upwards of 50-80mm may occur over parts of Wales . Time of Update 12:41 Paul Blight

Yup sure are as can see here https://en.sat24.com/en

11am Update Risk of Elevated Convection continues over parts of England and later Wales, Low Risk of Very Heavy Rain / Thunderstorms developing over parts of the SE this afternoon for a time (IF Surface heating can occur) Models continue to struggle with the very complex thermodynamic structure to the atmosphere over the Central & Southern Part of the UK. This is evidenced by the 00Z Hersmonceux ascent and the Camborne Ascent. The 00Z Unmodified Herstmonceux ascent indicates a very moist profile up to 850mb, and elevated instability to 700mbs, then some slight warming then a further cooling aloft assoc with some skinny elevated instability. This implies there are multiple hurdles to overcome in order to generate anything particularly convective over the Central and Southern parts of the UK through today. The 00Z Camborne Ascent is extremely saturated in the boundary layer with much drier and buoyant air aloft to the W. (Given the Hodograph) This more buoyant air is associated with the increasing vorticity assoc with the upper trough and increasing cyclonic vorticity moving towards the SW in assoc with the cyclonic upper vortex located to the west of Brest at present. Changes are now expected to be slow during the day, pockets of elevated convection will continue to develop but also wane as pockets of mid level instability are triggered by Isentropic uplift as the pseudo upper front moves NW. There is still scope for some breaks to occur in the SE and around London and that now seems to be the main chance for surface based convection to develop. The Herstmonceux Ascent is very high in Precipitable Water with over 40mm in the column which could be released in a short time should some surface heating occur. Temperatures are already picking up to 21C and if a further 2-3C can occur then the Ascent becomes unstable to the surface and with some indications of a small low developing over SE England this afternoon then local convergence seems likely to occur. During the evening as the approaching upper trough moves north, this may enhance any convection over the SE for a time before the sun sets. Further scattered elevated convection forced by the isentropic uplift may be augmented by increasing differential thermal advection over parts of Wales into Central England and this may enhance the elevated convection a little - but overall risk of Thunder in this zone appears low. A very complex thermodynamic environment and once again this evolution is given low confidence given the complexities and subtleties in the atmospheric column. Models are struggling to resolve the complex vertical temperature and moisture variations. From PJB UKWW Says it all really

Blimey,I be happy with just one decent overnight storm. but no they either died when got here or just skirted by..been really disappointing here,even during they day it been a struggle with just the odd flash and rumble.nothing overhead really.just had to settle with distant or decaying storm..

Seems random strikes going off

I'm guessing its cause it all high based but I no expert

And your little ones will sayl come one let's go see the lightning

Oh look we got a bit of rain from the leading edge from that Cambridge cell

Bit late but sun is finally breaking through lol

Very true,I'm glad the intense heat and muggy ness has gone though,shame it never ending with a proper storm,they all seem to miss and skirt passed here or die and the thunder and lightning this morning was just so far and few between and didn't really come to much.

Agree 100% although our high at church Lawford was 20.7 at 10am

Cool thank you

The wife has offered to take me to oxford in about around 5ish eta around 2 hours would this be a good bet and are there any good vantage points ?

No true,but is moving so may have hope yet http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile

Was just messaging a friend and saying exact same thing,this system needs to hurry up and shift its self

Yes and much welcomed after the heat and yesterdays 33.9c.I tend to use https://www.weatherhq.co.uk/weather-station/church-lawford and https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&MAPS=over&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&WMO=03544&UP=0&R=0&LEVEL=140&NOREGION=1

Only seen one big flash that seemed above me and not really that much thunder tbh.wow big flash again

I would not say torrential here,nice and steady with odd rumble thrown in

I would say its same here also,looks very messy,lots of low cloud

Just had a steady down pour for a couple of minutes and a nice rumble

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp looks like a cherry over east Anglia on one of the loops.haha

Yes I agree was just thinking same thing

Opposite interest with thunderstorms, I really want one to make my day and first one of this weeks risks,however you don't want one as it ruin your day,hopefully in an ideal situation it hits me full on and by passes you.