Summerstorm
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Posts posted by Summerstorm
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4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
The ECM is better than this mornings run, there is a cut off wedge of heights towards Iceland that will try to work in our favour.
Exactly what I was looking at I think sometimes posters fail to look at the bigger picture whether than the small details surrounding the UK.
Case and point the wedge at day 8 forcing the LP to the south to slide. Get that into Europe and those heights to our south should be gone too.
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Lot of very cold air flowing into Eastern Scandanavia at day 10. Access that and we all know what to expect.
At this point when do we start thinking about the breakdown that hasn't even happened. Do we start looking for trends or ways in which we can extend this spell?
Talking hypothetically though a wedge over Greenland and Scandanavia maybe a reload, maybe retrogression between the two. Do the background signals make this feasible? : I haven't the foggiest.
The GFS seems to like the Greenland route for now
A messy picture however with a massive HP system over SE Europe.
GEM on the other hand
Can one explain how to polish a turd.
For now we look to maximise the opportunities we have over the coming days. Where hopefully this spell is extended.
For now I'll end my lengthy muse hope some of you found this helpful and you all have a good day.
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Believe its sleeting here now hopefully some heavier precipitation will bring the temp down.
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Ah nice looks the band of precipitation is doing everything it can to avoid here.
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Anyone want a second run at a sliding low on the ECM? (JFF as its way out in FI)
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5 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
“If this spell delivers or not”
I think it’s gone beyond that now.
To be fair maybe some poor wording on my part we just don't to what extent this spell may deliver so I'm being speculative for now. Will have to see nearer the time if we end up with some troughs & other features.
In the meantime back on topic the control rolling out looks a lot cleaner than the OP run.
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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Stick a fork in the strat, it'll be done before month's end at this rate.
Hopefully weakened strat = more opportunities for us down the line no matter if this spell delivers or not.
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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
We're seeing that amplification moving out of the E coast of Canada modelled a lot now...Looks to me like this may well initiate another block somewhere (whether it be to our N or facilitating a block to the E).
Yeah looks like the LP over N UK doesn't move SE/ begin to weaken and as the blocking over Greenland/Iceland attempts to retrogress towards Scandinavia there is too much forcing so it spills out into the Siberian system instead and the remaining energy from the PV ejects a low in its place (I might be reading this wrong though!). I think we are riding our luck if we get the second ridge this time around as there are more things to go wrong.
Would much prefer the cleaner evolution on the GEM less things to go wrong
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If that tropical storm does end up elongating and sliding hopefully it can help if we were to retrogress into a Scandi Pattern down the line by propping it up.
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Not sure why people are complaining about macro scale details when the overall pattern has oodles of potential to reload maybe we hit the jackpot on the second or third attempt. After last winter I am not complaining I will take anything I can get at this point.
Finally remember not all people are looking for convective easterlies as they seldom deliver for Westerly areas unless they are very potent.
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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:
Suddenly feels much more intense out here like a hairdryer. Seems to have got much drier in the last few minutes. Feels like I’m in the Sun even though I’m in the shade. Maybe the foehn effect kicking in.
Yeah feels the same here went out there about 45 mins ago and it was boiling.
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37 at Hawarden just now wonder if it can be pushed any further.
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No idea if Gogerddan or anywhere in Mid Wales with the foehn effect has gotten warmer since but hit 36 degrees at Hawarden
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Similar here too 37 degrees on garden weather station and an official 36 degrees at Hawarden.
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Yeah knocking around 33/34 here Hawarden just hit 33 degrees at 1:30pm
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Something to keep an eye on is the GFS trying to eye up Plume V2 around Day 10. Long way out though still got detail to sort out for this plume first.
Certainly interested to see if the Wales record of 35.2 set in 1990 may be broken on Monday or Tuesday. GFS suggesting 35/36 around NE/SE Wales.
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19 minutes ago, clark3r said:
Don’t know if the gfs is having a wobble But Sunday now shows 33 and Monday 36 getting cooler with each run, 36 is still very hot of course but will need to see what other models are showing but the trend is not as good but could be upgrades of course in the next few runs
Okay this is going to be a long winded post but I hope it is of some value.
It might be cooler but as far as I am concerned I have no complaints. I know with increasing extremes we will eventually beat the record these charts just show us what a perfect set up could look like. Plus in 2019 we ended up with multiple plumes something to consider...
Meanwhile I see mid-high twenties plus from Saturday to Wednesday pretty widespread. Then another HP ridge from the Azores attempting to make inroads at Day 11.
To me there is two ways we look at it we either get the original synopsis which looked drier with hotter uppers. or we get plan b or somewhere in between the two with lower pressure and hopefully some electrical fun for the storm lovers to enjoy.
I guess you can take your pick obviously as weather enthusiasts we went to see and experience the extremes!
Not a personal dig at your post just some of the people called the output 'downgrades' of course as we all know it is very difficult to predict plumes as macro scale adjustments have a big impact.
Edit : Talk of the devil and here in FI GFS is trying for another plume
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Slower may mean less Atlantic influence as a result which is a risk I'm happy to take. Also can't help but notice even at Day 11/12 on the GFS the 20/24 isotherm is still over central Europe set up another S/SEly and it wouldn't take much to put us in the furnace again.
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12 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Would we want an Azores high to go south for cold weather? Migrating north would be better I'd have thought: if an Azores high becomes a mid-Atlantic high then we might be in with the chance for some northerlies.
Usually yes however given the current parameters this can't happen as the PV is too strong. Plus we've already had multiple attempts at this evolution. So at this juncture it going south and resetting the pattern is much better if we can tap into the cold Polar Maritime air from a NW direction.
Maybe then down the road we could benefit from an Arctic High as Any ridging attempts towards Scandi/Greenland will likely be flattened out by the strong jet stream.
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On 22/01/2022 at 13:44, summer blizzard said:
I think volume of tephra ejected is the classification but there's usually a correlation.
Yeah that's correct but I feel like the volume will be lower than the likes of Krakatoa because the eruption only lasted for an hour or two compared to the usual 12-24 hours.
This is where it becomes difficult to classify it as then you have to ask what would have happened if an eruption at the same intensity happened on land?
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5 hours ago, swebby said:
In regards to risk and putting aside VEI7+ eruptions that are incredibly unlikely to occur anywhere on the globe in our lifetimes.
A standard moderate sized eruption of either Campi Flegrei or Mount Vesuvius would be catastrophic at a local level. The expansion of Naples and the surrounding area now stands at over 3 million people! With development ongoing high on the flanks of Vesuvius, if there is insufficient notice (weeks) of an eruption, the consequences are hard to imagine.
That's what my thoughts were that Vesuvius hasn't erupted for 78 years the duration between eruptions are between 70-140 years so theoretically It could explode any day although I'd imagine it might be a few decades before that happens. VEI 7 eruptions are rare and occur once a millennia on average even VEI 6 eruptions only occur two or three times a century at most.
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7 hours ago, The PIT said:
Tambora vie 7
Yeah compare the two and this one in Tonga looks pale in comparison. I hate to think how bad an eruption of that scale there would be today with over double the UK's population living on nearby Java on it's own.
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ECM better than GFS +168 and very similar to GEM too won't get there this time but maybe third time is the charm this time around
Wouldn't take much of an adjustment for a decent toppler but a true Greenland high is out of the question for now based on current output. Maybe this will change as the models have been volatile although it's at odds.
GFS again sniffing out a move to Scandi out in Day 13-15 over the last few runs will have to see whether that trend continues.
Anyway end of ECM seems to have promise with nice forcing on the PV and more of it draining out of Canada. However we probably won't convert it. Anyway I'm out now until the 6z runs have a good morning everyone.
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7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
A day 10 chart (again) - it's more promising than mild at day 10 at least. Could just be that the ecm looses resolution by 240h so weakens the Azores. A combination of that and an actual tendency for westwards movement in the Azores is behind that 240h chart.
Indeed Kasim I will hold some scepticism until we start seeing it being modelled within 5-6 days but one of the better runs it's put out in the last few days.
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Summerstorm
Yeah a few details could make a big difference on this run but that doesn't change the fact that this is not an 'awful' run. There is still plenty of time for change in what looks to be an overall promising pattern. Ergo the phasing of the lows this week they may have changed for the worse but shows how much can change short term.
We have to remember where we are located within the Northern Hemisphere and limit our expectations, Also this winter has been infinitely better than the last and we are only two weeks in any more cold spells is a bonus imo