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Everything posted by Summerstorm

  1. Looks like our old friend Liverpool Airport weather station has been on the pints today Seems to be consistently six to seven degrees warmer than Hawarden,Crosby and Rostherne/Manchester Airport
  2. Yeah definitely wrong the warmest around here is Hawarden at 28c then some other stations like Crosby and Rostherne are showing 26/27c . So I put that at about six degrees off don't see anything wrong there
  3. It starts to lift out by Friday on the UKMO a little slower on the GFS but looks likely high pressure will build in again over the weekend after. To be honest if we have a couple of days of pain to help get a better pattern in place then I'm not complaining.
  4. ECM slap bang in the middle between the GFS and UKMO/GEM. Stronger ridge at Day 5 akin to the GFS means that the Atlantic doesn't come flying through. Not as good as the GFS but we'd have to see where we'd go from there.
  5. Few rumbles here from a heavy shower passing over but not much to see. Some pretty heavy hail though across town https://twitter.com/wrexham/status/1392515732961992706?s=19
  6. Meh no thanks give me the less amplified solution from the Midnight run looks more likely to give the UK finer weather especially after all the wind and rain this week.
  7. Yeah the showers really struggled to get over here and when they did then went West over the North Wales coast instead. Think we did better last BFTE in the south of the region because of the trough going through and the temps being 1 or 2 degrees cooler overall made a big differences to melting. Wonder whether the better direction is ESE for Wales and Cheshire instead as showers don't have to cross the Pennines. The obvious problem with that wind direction is the notorious rain shadow over Manchester.
  8. UKMO and ECM looking pretty similar at Day 5. Slight differences regarding the lows the ECM has it further West but keeps the two lows phased where as the UKMO separates them. Vis over Scandi the heights are slightly better on the UKMO but we are nit picking at this point.
  9. This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun. As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag. Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st But we shall see later whether these are the types of scenarios we should be looking for later on because the attempt at a Scandi High failed or whether maybe this would achievable by some form of retrogression from a Scandi Block we shall have to see with the MJO into phase 7 this could be possible and these are the permutations to look for should early attempts for scandi blocking fail. Look for a UK high to retrogress north.
  10. Hopefully I can catch part of that streamer as it gradually sinks south. The thing with the 2018 beast was that we got a nice trough moving through that gave a decent area a good 5cm or so. This time we don't have any which is a bit disappointing so we have to rely on getting lucky with showers and streamers. That's why it's a let down for a lot of us.
  11. Yeah I'm pi**ed off with that they're all going to the North of me
  12. No sugar coating either of them but the GFS is still better and holds the Atlantic at bay at least it looks like on the UKMO it would blast through. By Day 8 there is still some hope there trying to create a Scandi Ridge whilst looking towards Greenland too provided some energy from the bowling ball is cut off. At this point looking for hope is not great considering some of the spectacular charts that were popping up a mere 36 hours ago. Shows how much can change within a short time period.
  13. Finally got a proper shower here still not particularly heavy though but got a dusting now.
  14. GEFS looking pretty decent well over half of them showing Scandi Highs of some descriptions however the main takeaway is about 1 or 2 out of 30 support the horrow show of the GEM which is reassuring.
  15. After seeing this the UKMO looks ok to me that bowling ball is never going to give any WAA. Current output certainly seems to be looking pretty negative currently in comparion to a couple of days ago. Although we'll see how the GEFS look and what the ECM comes up with later.
  16. Not making it this time we really need some shortwave energy sent south earlier to prop up that high and to cut it off from the remaining heights over Southern Europe. Still a decent run though with some cold remaining but as @CreweCold we really need that feed of cold air now otherwise with high pressure over/ to the north of us the cold air in situ will quickly mix out as seen towards day 10
  17. UKMO is very progressive with the low compared to the GFS and means a weaker ridge that will likely collapse over the UK. This is apparent as early as Day 4. Despite the fact that the GFS has over egged the low by 10mbars it has a better tilt leading to much better WAA and a stronger ridge.
  18. Yep saw the chart at Day 6 and knew the Scandi High was coming as it was much further West than the GFS at that point. As we know of course the GFS has a problem with being over progressive so maybe let's how much support it's evolution has in the GEFS. Secondly the blocking over the Arctic and Northern Russia was better on the GEM which helps support the ridge as it goes up. In the meantime the GFS fancies an excursion off to Greenland in FI fairly feasible evolution with MJO heading into Phase 8 in a couple of weeks. Although I would expect Retrogression from Scandi to be the more likely route to get there instead based upon current direction of travel.
  19. Reasonable support in the GEFS for the general pattern shown on the GEM up to Day 8/9 with the WAA through the UK. What we need to focus on is enough forcing from the low to keep the ridge from sinking into Europe. The best ensemble member is 30 and has a full blown Scandi High at +192 I would presume it delays dropping the PV into Canada therefore allowing extra time for a stronger ridge to set up. Therefore when the LP system gets ejected it gets stopped mid Atlantic and builds a ridge from the AH into the UK to support the Scandi High. I believe this is what @nick sussex was taking about if we can delay the energy coming from the PV. It gives us these extra opportunities for cleaner evolution instead of messing around with the more complex evolution from the GEM. However maybe the more realistic option is plan B with the WAA on the eastern flank of the LP system. I'm just musing currently so feel free to correct me I'm still learning too weather forecasts are a fickle beast
  20. One little detail I noticed which is important is that lower pressure over Western Russia and the LP system heading in from the Atlantic stop the high from sinking into Central Europe.
  21. Allow me to muse my thoughts on what might happen with my limited knowledge. So as follows : Secondary low to hopefully split off from the main one and slide under the ridge into Europe. Firstly that would help to prop the Scandi Ridge up and stop any heights that build from sinking. Secondly it would stop heights over Southern Europe from building and introducing mild air from the Med. Then the best case scenario is the main low eventually goes under as the Scandi Ridge develops into a full blown high. But if it doesn't then maybe we'd look for WAA to strengthen the potential Scandi High from an Atlantic Ridge or from the low colliding with the high pressure as seen on the GEM run. Bare in mind this is all guess work and I could be completely wrong but if I am it will be a good learning experience.
  22. Bare in mind that is for 6pm as it says 12 CST at the bottom.
  23. Interested on what you are thinking for the south of the region I.e. Cheshire/Merseyside and into North East Wales out of interest? Unsure on whether it would be better depending on the wind direction as we have less influence from the Pennines. Finding your posts very informative by the way so thanks for that
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